Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Wake Forest at Florida State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida State beat Wake Forest 42–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida State was a 79% favorite.
Final
 Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 7 |
|---|---|
 Florida State Seminoles | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Florida State about even · −1 Wake Forest
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wake Forest wins 0, Florida State wins 10.
- 1 WAKE 17 FSU 23
- 2 WAKE 6 FSU 17
- 3 WAKE 6 FSU 23
- 4 WAKE 9 FSU 30
- 5 WAKE 6 FSU 31
- 6 WAKE 7 FSU 35
- 7 WAKE 7 FSU 38
- 8 WAKE 9 FSU 44
- 9 WAKE 0 FSU 40
- 10 WAKE 7 FSU 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wake Forest wins 1% of them, Florida State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Florida State by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wake Forest by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Wake Forest by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Wake Forest by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 3.8% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 8.3% |
| Florida State by 17+ | 86.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Wake Forest 11 for 93 yards, Florida State 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:11 | False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAKE +0.3 pts |
| Q1 6:05 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:59 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wake Forest, 15 yards | +3% FSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:43 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards | +1% FSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:26 | Illegal Substitution on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAKE +0.2 pts |
| Q2 13:42 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% FSU +4.6 pts |
| Q2 11:27 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:16 | Holding on Florida State, 10 yards | +1% WAKE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:22 | Pass Interference on Florida State, 15 yards | +4% WAKE +4.5 pts |
| Q3 8:27 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +0.1 pts |
| Q3 8:24 | Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 15 yards | +1% FSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:47 | Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 3 yards | 0% FSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:51 | Unnecessary Roughness on Wake Forest, 15 yards | 0% FSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:00 | Illegal Snap on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 0:20 | Pass Interference on Florida State, 15 yards | 0% WAKE +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Florida State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:29 | Wake Forest converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% WAKE | WAKE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 0:26 | Florida State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedIllegal Substitution on Wake Forest, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 13:44 | Florida State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% FSU | FSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 13:42 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% FSU | FSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:50 | Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedWake Forest fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% WAKE | WAKE: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 10:16 | Florida State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% FSU | FSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 9:22 | Pass Interference on Florida State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% WAKE | WAKE: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 8:24 | Wake Forest fumbled and Florida State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% FSU | WAKE: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wake Forest 0% · Florida State 100%
- Final margin
- Florida State by 35
- Luck in points
- 1.6 for Wake Forest
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida State by 36.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Wake Forest 1% · Florida State 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Wake Forest · 
Florida State
More from Week 10 2025
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Virginia at California UVA 31–21 · replay 54% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Stanford PITT 35–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- North Carolina at Syracuse UNC 27–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Louisville at Virginia Tech LOU 28–16 · replay 95% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Boston College ND 25–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner