luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

Mississippi State at Arkansas, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Mississippi State beat Arkansas 38–35, but the replays lean toward Arkansas: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Mississippi State.

Before kickoff Arkansas was a 64% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:48 left): Mississippi State converted 4th & 5, worth 30 points of win probability to Mississippi State.

Final

Mississippi State Bulldogs 38
Arkansas Razorbacks 35

November 1, 2025 · Razorback Stadium · Closing line: Arkansas −5.5

Luck index +77 Mississippi State very lucky · −77 Arkansas

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mississippi State wins 2, Arkansas wins 8.

  1. 1 MSST 28 ARK 14
  2. 2 MSST 16 ARK 11
  3. 3 MSST 14 ARK 17
  4. 4 MSST 14 ARK 20
  5. 5 MSST 13 ARK 21
  6. 6 MSST 21 ARK 33
  7. 7 MSST 7 ARK 24
  8. 8 MSST 3 ARK 23
  9. 9 MSST 14 ARK 38
  10. 10 MSST 7 ARK 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Mississippi State wins 23% of them, Arkansas 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Mississippi State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mississippi State by 17+3.4%
Mississippi State by 9–167.4%
Mississippi State by 1–810.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Arkansas by 1–822.6%
Arkansas by 9–1617.7%
Arkansas by 17+36.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to Arkansas: the final margin was Mississippi State by 3, without the luck Mississippi State by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Starzyk, 42 yds made · 70% expected
  • S. Starzyk, 30 yds made · 88% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 46 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Mississippi State 4 for 30 yards, Arkansas 16 for 198 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:06 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards +3% MSST +1.5 pts
Q1 11:10 Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards +5% MSST +2.8 pts
Q1 3:21 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARK +0.4 pts
Q2 0:34 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MSST +1.1 pts
Q3 14:58 Roughing the Passer on Arkansas, 15 yards +3% MSST +1.4 pts
Q3 13:43 Offside on Arkansas, 2 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +13% ARK +7.8 pts
Q3 11:06 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +4% ARK +1.3 pts
Q3 10:55 Illegal Formation on Arkansas, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% MSST +1.0 pts
Q3 6:18 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arkansas, 15 yards +3% MSST +1.6 pts
Q3 6:14 Personal Foul on Arkansas, 15 yards +1% MSST +0.9 pts
Q3 5:57 Targeting on Arkansas, 15 yards +2% MSST +1.6 pts
Q3 2:33 Face Mask on Arkansas, 15 yards +4% MSST +1.6 pts
Q3 0:14 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% MSST +0.9 pts
Q4 10:37 Roughing the Passer on Arkansas, 15 yards +1% MSST +1.6 pts
Q4 10:24 Pass Interference on Arkansas, 12 yards +3% MSST +1.9 pts
Q4 10:10 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards +1% MSST +0.6 pts
Q4 7:59 Unnecessary Roughness on Arkansas, 15 yards +5% MSST +1.6 pts
Q4 6:13 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARK +0.3 pts
Q4 4:24 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards +2% MSST +0.6 pts
Q4 0:14 Intentional Grounding on Arkansas, 19 yards +21% MSST +1.2 pts

When it happened

Arkansas’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arkansas was ahead in it, below while Mississippi State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:10 Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% MSST MSST: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:21 Mississippi State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% MSST MSST: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:06 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% ARK MSST: Punt
4 Q1 1:55 Arkansas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% ARK ARK: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:59 Arkansas converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% ARK ARK: Field goal
6 Q3 13:43 Offside on Arkansas, 2 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +13% ARK MSST: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:48 The game turned hereMississippi State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +30% MSST –
8 Q4 0:14 Arkansas was stopped on 4th & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedIntentional Grounding on Arkansas, 19 yardsJudgment calls +21% MSST –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mississippi State 61% · Arkansas 39%

Final margin
Mississippi State by 3
Luck in points
0.9 for Arkansas
Luck-adjusted margin
Mississippi State by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Mississippi State 23% · Arkansas 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Mississippi State · Arkansas

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