Week 5 · October 1–3
College football predictions, week 5 Every FBS game of the week, forecast from how each team has played against the opponents it has faced, with the luck of its results taken out, and from where it stood last season. College schedules differ enormously, so every team is rated against the schedule it has played. No betting information goes in. Tested on every FBS game from 2021 to 2025, this forecast picked 74.4% of winners.
Updated Oct 1, 11:46 am ET. Each forecast is frozen at kickoff and scored when the game is played. How it has done
Weeks ahead 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 New Mexico State by 0.6 · 52% to win
Ours: New Mexico State by 0.6 Western Kentucky win 48% New Mexico State win 52% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Western Kentucky win by New Mexico State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Western Kentucky win 48.4% New Mexico State win 51.6% Middle 50%: Western Kentucky by 10 to New Mexico State by 11 50% Middle 90%: Western Kentucky by 26 to New Mexico State by 27 90% Middle 95%: Western Kentucky by 31 to New Mexico State by 32 95% Exactly New Mexico State by 3 6.9% Exactly Western Kentucky by 3 6.8% Exactly New Mexico State by 7 5.2% Exactly Western Kentucky by 7 5.0% Exactly New Mexico State by 14 3.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Western Kentucky +5.2 Home field New Mexico State +3.1 This season, against its opponents New Mexico State +2.6
North Texas by 10.5 · 75% to win
Ours: North Texas by 10.5 North Texas win 75% Tulsa win 25% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← North Texas win by Tulsa win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance North Texas win 74.7% Tulsa win 25.3% Middle 50%: North Texas by 21 to Tulsa by 1 50% Middle 90%: North Texas by 37 to Tulsa by 16 90% Middle 95%: North Texas by 42 to Tulsa by 21 95% Exactly North Texas by 3 6.2% Exactly North Texas by 7 5.5% Exactly Tulsa by 3 4.9% Exactly North Texas by 14 4.3% Exactly North Texas by 17 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from Last season North Texas +13.0 Home field Tulsa +3.1 This season, against its opponents North Texas +0.7
Pittsburgh by 6.0 · 65% to win
Ours: Pittsburgh by 6.0 Pittsburgh win 65% Virginia Tech win 35% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Pittsburgh win by Virginia Tech win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Pittsburgh win 64.7% Virginia Tech win 35.3% Middle 50%: Pittsburgh by 17 to Virginia Tech by 5 50% Middle 90%: Pittsburgh by 32 to Virginia Tech by 21 90% Middle 95%: Pittsburgh by 38 to Virginia Tech by 25 95% Exactly Pittsburgh by 3 6.9% Exactly Virginia Tech by 3 6.0% Exactly Pittsburgh by 7 5.6% Exactly Virginia Tech by 7 4.1% Exactly Pittsburgh by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Pittsburgh +8.2 Home field Virginia Tech +3.1 This season, against its opponents Pittsburgh +0.9
Liberty by 4.6 · 62% to win
Ours: Liberty by 4.6 Liberty win 62% Delaware win 38% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Liberty win by Delaware win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Liberty win 61.5% Delaware win 38.5% Middle 50%: Liberty by 15 to Delaware by 7 50% Middle 90%: Liberty by 31 to Delaware by 21 90% Middle 95%: Liberty by 35 to Delaware by 27 95% Exactly Liberty by 3 6.9% Exactly Delaware by 3 6.2% Exactly Liberty by 7 5.6% Exactly Delaware by 7 4.3% Exactly Liberty by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Liberty +9.0 Home field Delaware +3.1 Last season Delaware +1.3
Penn State by 2.2 · 55% to win
Ours: Penn State by 2.2 Penn State win 55% Northwestern win 45% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Penn State win by Northwestern win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Penn State win 55.4% Northwestern win 44.6% Middle 50%: Penn State by 13 to Northwestern by 8 50% Middle 90%: Penn State by 28 to Northwestern by 24 90% Middle 95%: Penn State by 34 to Northwestern by 29 95% Exactly Penn State by 3 7.0% Exactly Northwestern by 3 6.6% Exactly Penn State by 7 5.4% Exactly Northwestern by 7 4.8% Exactly Penn State by 14 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Penn State +3.2 Home field Northwestern +3.1 This season, against its opponents Penn State +2.1
Alabama by 7.5 · 68% to win
Ours: Alabama by 7.5 Alabama win 68% Mississippi State win 32% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Alabama win by Mississippi State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Alabama win 68.2% Mississippi State win 31.8% Middle 50%: Alabama by 18 to Mississippi State by 3 50% Middle 90%: Alabama by 34 to Mississippi State by 19 90% Middle 95%: Alabama by 39 to Mississippi State by 24 95% Exactly Alabama by 3 6.7% Exactly Mississippi State by 3 5.6% Exactly Alabama by 7 5.6% Exactly Alabama by 14 4.1% Exactly Mississippi State by 7 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Alabama +9.8 Home field Mississippi State +3.1 This season, against its opponents Alabama +0.9
Kansas by 17.0 · 86% to win
Ours: Kansas by 17.0 Middle Tennessee win 14% Kansas win 86% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Middle Tennessee win by Kansas win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Middle Tennessee win 14.2% Kansas win 85.8% Middle 50%: Kansas by 7 to Kansas by 28 50% Middle 90%: Middle Tennessee by 9 to Kansas by 43 90% Middle 95%: Middle Tennessee by 14 to Kansas by 49 95% Exactly Kansas by 3 4.7% Exactly Kansas by 7 4.6% Exactly Kansas by 14 4.3% Exactly Kansas by 21 4.3% Exactly Kansas by 17 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Kansas +13.9 Home field Kansas +3.1
Houston by 6.0 · 65% to win
Ours: Houston by 6.0 UCF win 35% Houston win 65% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← UCF win by Houston win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance UCF win 35.2% Houston win 64.8% Middle 50%: UCF by 5 to Houston by 17 50% Middle 90%: UCF by 21 to Houston by 32 90% Middle 95%: UCF by 25 to Houston by 38 95% Exactly Houston by 3 6.9% Exactly UCF by 3 6.0% Exactly Houston by 7 5.6% Exactly UCF by 7 4.0% Exactly Houston by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Houston +3.1 This season, against its opponents Houston +3.0 Last season UCF +0.1
Iowa State by 13.9 · 81% to win
Ours: Iowa State by 13.9 West Virginia win 19% Iowa State win 81% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← West Virginia win by Iowa State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance West Virginia win 19.1% Iowa State win 80.9% Middle 50%: Iowa State by 3 to Iowa State by 25 50% Middle 90%: West Virginia by 13 to Iowa State by 40 90% Middle 95%: West Virginia by 17 to Iowa State by 45 95% Exactly Iowa State by 3 5.5% Exactly Iowa State by 7 5.1% Exactly Iowa State by 14 4.4% Exactly Iowa State by 17 4.2% Exactly Iowa State by 21 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Iowa State +7.4 This season, against its opponents Iowa State +3.4 Home field Iowa State +3.1
SMU by 20.9 · 91% to win
Ours: SMU by 20.9 Boston College win 9% SMU win 91% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Boston College win by SMU win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Boston College win 9.4% SMU win 90.6% Middle 50%: SMU by 10 to SMU by 32 50% Middle 90%: Boston College by 6 to SMU by 48 90% Middle 95%: Boston College by 10 to SMU by 52 95% Exactly SMU by 21 4.5% Exactly SMU by 28 4.2% Exactly SMU by 17 4.1% Exactly SMU by 14 4.0% Exactly SMU by 7 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents SMU +11.4 Last season SMU +6.4 Home field SMU +3.1
Notre Dame by 24.4 · 94% to win
Ours: Notre Dame by 24.4 Notre Dame win 94% North Carolina win 6% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Notre Dame win by North Carolina win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Notre Dame win 93.8% North Carolina win 6.3% Middle 50%: Notre Dame by 35 to Notre Dame by 14 50% Middle 90%: Notre Dame by 50 to North Carolina by 3 90% Middle 95%: Notre Dame by 56 to North Carolina by 7 95% Exactly Notre Dame by 28 4.5% Exactly Notre Dame by 21 4.4% Exactly Notre Dame by 17 3.8% Exactly Notre Dame by 14 3.6% Exactly Notre Dame by 24 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Notre Dame +14.3 This season, against its opponents Notre Dame +13.2 Home field North Carolina +3.1
Wake Forest by 15.2 · 83% to win
Ours: Wake Forest by 15.2 Stanford win 17% Wake Forest win 83% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Stanford win by Wake Forest win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Stanford win 17.0% Wake Forest win 83.0% Middle 50%: Wake Forest by 4 to Wake Forest by 26 50% Middle 90%: Stanford by 11 to Wake Forest by 42 90% Middle 95%: Stanford by 17 to Wake Forest by 46 95% Exactly Wake Forest by 3 5.2% Exactly Wake Forest by 7 4.9% Exactly Wake Forest by 14 4.4% Exactly Wake Forest by 17 4.2% Exactly Wake Forest by 21 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Wake Forest +11.9 Home field Wake Forest +3.1 Last season Wake Forest +0.1
UConn by 4.2 · 61% to win
Ours: UConn by 4.2 Syracuse win 39% UConn win 61% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Syracuse win by UConn win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Syracuse win 39.5% UConn win 60.5% Middle 50%: Syracuse by 7 to UConn by 15 50% Middle 90%: Syracuse by 22 to UConn by 31 90% Middle 95%: Syracuse by 28 to UConn by 35 95% Exactly UConn by 3 7.0% Exactly Syracuse by 3 6.3% Exactly UConn by 7 5.5% Exactly Syracuse by 7 4.4% Exactly UConn by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Home field UConn +3.1 This season, against its opponents UConn +2.1 Last season Syracuse +1.0
Michigan by 2.7 · 57% to win
Ours: Michigan by 2.7 Michigan win 57% Minnesota win 43% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Michigan win by Minnesota win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Michigan win 56.8% Minnesota win 43.2% Middle 50%: Michigan by 14 to Minnesota by 7 50% Middle 90%: Michigan by 29 to Minnesota by 24 90% Middle 95%: Michigan by 34 to Minnesota by 28 95% Exactly Michigan by 3 7.0% Exactly Minnesota by 3 6.5% Exactly Michigan by 7 5.4% Exactly Minnesota by 7 4.7% Exactly Michigan by 14 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Michigan +10.1 This season, against its opponents Minnesota +4.2 Home field Minnesota +3.1
Air Force by 2.4 · 56% to win
Ours: Air Force by 2.4 Navy win 44% Air Force win 56% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Navy win by Air Force win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Navy win 44.0% Air Force win 56.0% Middle 50%: Navy by 8 to Air Force by 14 50% Middle 90%: Navy by 24 to Air Force by 28 90% Middle 95%: Navy by 29 to Air Force by 34 95% Exactly Air Force by 3 7.0% Exactly Navy by 3 6.6% Exactly Air Force by 7 5.4% Exactly Navy by 7 4.7% Exactly Air Force by 14 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Air Force +3.1 Last season Navy +1.2 This season, against its opponents Air Force +0.5
Wisconsin by 7.0 · 67% to win
Ours: Wisconsin by 7.0 Michigan State win 33% Wisconsin win 67% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Michigan State win by Wisconsin win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Michigan State win 33.0% Wisconsin win 67.0% Middle 50%: Michigan State by 3 to Wisconsin by 18 50% Middle 90%: Michigan State by 20 to Wisconsin by 34 90% Middle 95%: Michigan State by 24 to Wisconsin by 38 95% Exactly Wisconsin by 3 6.8% Exactly Michigan State by 3 5.7% Exactly Wisconsin by 7 5.6% Exactly Wisconsin by 14 4.0% Exactly Michigan State by 7 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Wisconsin +7.1 Last season Michigan State +3.3 Home field Wisconsin +3.1
Georgia by 18.9 · 88% to win
Ours: Georgia by 18.9 Vanderbilt win 12% Georgia win 88% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Vanderbilt win by Georgia win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Vanderbilt win 11.7% Georgia win 88.3% Middle 50%: Georgia by 7 to Georgia by 30 50% Middle 90%: Vanderbilt by 7 to Georgia by 45 90% Middle 95%: Vanderbilt by 13 to Georgia by 50 95% Exactly Georgia by 21 4.4% Exactly Georgia by 7 4.3% Exactly Georgia by 3 4.3% Exactly Georgia by 17 4.2% Exactly Georgia by 14 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Georgia +15.6 Home field Georgia +3.1 Last season Georgia +0.2
Western Michigan by 15.8 · 84% to win
Ours: Western Michigan by 15.8 Western Michigan win 84% Buffalo win 16% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Western Michigan win by Buffalo win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Western Michigan win 83.9% Buffalo win 16.1% Middle 50%: Western Michigan by 27 to Western Michigan by 5 50% Middle 90%: Western Michigan by 42 to Buffalo by 10 90% Middle 95%: Western Michigan by 47 to Buffalo by 16 95% Exactly Western Michigan by 3 5.1% Exactly Western Michigan by 7 4.8% Exactly Western Michigan by 14 4.4% Exactly Western Michigan by 17 4.3% Exactly Western Michigan by 21 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Western Michigan +9.5 This season, against its opponents Western Michigan +9.4 Home field Buffalo +3.1
Toledo by 22.4 · 92% to win
Ours: Toledo by 22.4 Toledo win 92% Ball State win 8% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Toledo win by Ball State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Toledo win 92.1% Ball State win 7.9% Middle 50%: Toledo by 33 to Toledo by 12 50% Middle 90%: Toledo by 49 to Ball State by 3 90% Middle 95%: Toledo by 53 to Ball State by 9 95% Exactly Toledo by 21 4.4% Exactly Toledo by 28 4.4% Exactly Toledo by 17 4.0% Exactly Toledo by 14 3.8% Exactly Toledo by 7 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Toledo +13.8 This season, against its opponents Toledo +11.7 Home field Ball State +3.1
Florida by 6.5 · 66% to win
Ours: Florida by 6.5 Florida win 66% Missouri win 34% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Florida win by Missouri win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Florida win 65.9% Missouri win 34.1% Middle 50%: Florida by 17 to Missouri by 4 50% Middle 90%: Florida by 33 to Missouri by 20 90% Middle 95%: Florida by 38 to Missouri by 25 95% Exactly Florida by 3 6.8% Exactly Missouri by 3 5.8% Exactly Florida by 7 5.6% Exactly Florida by 14 4.0% Exactly Missouri by 7 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Florida +6.3 Last season Florida +3.4 Home field Missouri +3.1
Tennessee by 9.6 · 73% to win
Ours: Tennessee by 9.6 Auburn win 27% Tennessee win 73% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Auburn win by Tennessee win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Auburn win 27.3% Tennessee win 72.7% Middle 50%: Auburn by 3 to Tennessee by 21 50% Middle 90%: Auburn by 17 to Tennessee by 35 90% Middle 95%: Auburn by 22 to Tennessee by 41 95% Exactly Tennessee by 3 6.4% Exactly Tennessee by 7 5.5% Exactly Auburn by 3 5.1% Exactly Tennessee by 14 4.2% Exactly Tennessee by 17 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Tennessee +9.1 Home field Tennessee +3.1 Last season Auburn +2.7
UNLV by 6.9 · 67% to win
Ours: UNLV by 6.9 California win 33% UNLV win 67% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← California win by UNLV win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance California win 33.2% UNLV win 66.8% Middle 50%: California by 3 to UNLV by 18 50% Middle 90%: California by 20 to UNLV by 34 90% Middle 95%: California by 24 to UNLV by 38 95% Exactly UNLV by 3 6.8% Exactly California by 3 5.8% Exactly UNLV by 7 5.6% Exactly UNLV by 14 4.0% Exactly California by 7 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents UNLV +4.3 Home field UNLV +3.1 Last season California +0.6
Louisville by 2.1 · 55% to win
Ours: Louisville by 2.1 Louisville win 55% NC State win 45% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Louisville win by NC State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Louisville win 55.3% NC State win 44.7% Middle 50%: Louisville by 13 to NC State by 8 50% Middle 90%: Louisville by 28 to NC State by 24 90% Middle 95%: Louisville by 34 to NC State by 29 95% Exactly Louisville by 3 7.0% Exactly NC State by 3 6.6% Exactly Louisville by 7 5.4% Exactly NC State by 7 4.8% Exactly Louisville by 14 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Louisville +7.9 Home field NC State +3.1 This season, against its opponents NC State +2.7
Virginia by 4.4 · 61% to win
Ours: Virginia by 4.4 Virginia win 61% Florida State win 39% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Virginia win by Florida State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Virginia win 60.9% Florida State win 39.1% Middle 50%: Virginia by 15 to Florida State by 7 50% Middle 90%: Virginia by 31 to Florida State by 22 90% Middle 95%: Virginia by 35 to Florida State by 27 95% Exactly Virginia by 3 6.9% Exactly Florida State by 3 6.3% Exactly Virginia by 7 5.5% Exactly Florida State by 7 4.4% Exactly Virginia by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Virginia +8.8 Home field Florida State +3.1 Last season Florida State +1.2
Ohio State by 7.0 · 67% to win
Ours: Ohio State by 7.0 Ohio State win 67% Iowa win 33% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Ohio State win by Iowa win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ohio State win 67.0% Iowa win 33.1% Middle 50%: Ohio State by 18 to Iowa by 3 50% Middle 90%: Ohio State by 34 to Iowa by 20 90% Middle 95%: Ohio State by 38 to Iowa by 24 95% Exactly Ohio State by 3 6.8% Exactly Iowa by 3 5.8% Exactly Ohio State by 7 5.6% Exactly Ohio State by 14 4.0% Exactly Iowa by 7 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Ohio State +5.7 This season, against its opponents Ohio State +4.4 Home field Iowa +3.1
Memphis by 20.3 · 90% to win
Ours: Memphis by 20.3 Memphis win 90% Charlotte win 10% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Memphis win by Charlotte win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Memphis win 90.0% Charlotte win 10.0% Middle 50%: Memphis by 31 to Memphis by 10 50% Middle 90%: Memphis by 46 to Charlotte by 7 90% Middle 95%: Memphis by 52 to Charlotte by 11 95% Exactly Memphis by 21 4.4% Exactly Memphis by 17 4.2% Exactly Memphis by 28 4.1% Exactly Memphis by 14 4.1% Exactly Memphis by 7 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Memphis +14.5 Last season Memphis +9.0 Home field Charlotte +3.1
UAB by 25.0 · 94% to win
Ours: UAB by 25.0 Samford win 6% UAB win 94% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Samford win by UAB win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Samford win 5.8% UAB win 94.2% Middle 50%: UAB by 14 to UAB by 35 50% Middle 90%: Samford by 3 to UAB by 52 90% Middle 95%: Samford by 7 to UAB by 56 95% Exactly UAB by 28 4.6% Exactly UAB by 21 4.3% Exactly UAB by 17 3.8% Exactly UAB by 14 3.5% Exactly UAB by 24 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Last season UAB +21.7 Home field UAB +3.1 This season, against its opponents UAB +0.1
North Dakota State by 23.2 · 93% to win
Ours: North Dakota State by 23.2 Wyoming win 7% North Dakota State win 93% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Wyoming win by North Dakota State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Wyoming win 7.2% North Dakota State win 92.8% Middle 50%: North Dakota State by 13 to North Dakota State by 34 50% Middle 90%: Wyoming by 3 to North Dakota State by 49 90% Middle 95%: Wyoming by 8 to North Dakota State by 55 95% Exactly North Dakota State by 28 4.4% Exactly North Dakota State by 21 4.4% Exactly North Dakota State by 17 4.0% Exactly North Dakota State by 14 3.7% Exactly North Dakota State by 24 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents North Dakota State +16.5 Last season North Dakota State +3.5 Home field North Dakota State +3.1
Central Michigan by 6.2 · 65% to win
Ours: Central Michigan by 6.2 Akron win 35% Central Michigan win 65% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Akron win by Central Michigan win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Akron win 34.8% Central Michigan win 65.2% Middle 50%: Akron by 4 to Central Michigan by 17 50% Middle 90%: Akron by 21 to Central Michigan by 32 90% Middle 95%: Akron by 25 to Central Michigan by 38 95% Exactly Central Michigan by 3 6.8% Exactly Akron by 3 5.9% Exactly Central Michigan by 7 5.6% Exactly Akron by 7 4.0% Exactly Central Michigan by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Central Michigan +3.1 Last season Central Michigan +1.8 This season, against its opponents Central Michigan +1.3
Massachusetts by 10.3 · 74% to win
Ours: Massachusetts by 10.3 Eastern Michigan win 26% Massachusetts win 74% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Eastern Michigan win by Massachusetts win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Eastern Michigan win 25.8% Massachusetts win 74.2% Middle 50%: Eastern Michigan by 1 to Massachusetts by 21 50% Middle 90%: Eastern Michigan by 17 to Massachusetts by 37 90% Middle 95%: Eastern Michigan by 21 to Massachusetts by 42 95% Exactly Massachusetts by 3 6.3% Exactly Massachusetts by 7 5.5% Exactly Eastern Michigan by 3 4.9% Exactly Massachusetts by 14 4.3% Exactly Massachusetts by 17 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Massachusetts +20.3 Last season Eastern Michigan +13.2 Home field Massachusetts +3.1
Ohio by 10.0 · 74% to win
Ours: Ohio by 10.0 Ohio win 74% Kent State win 26% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Ohio win by Kent State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ohio win 73.6% Kent State win 26.4% Middle 50%: Ohio by 21 to Kent State by 2 50% Middle 90%: Ohio by 36 to Kent State by 17 90% Middle 95%: Ohio by 42 to Kent State by 21 95% Exactly Ohio by 3 6.3% Exactly Ohio by 7 5.5% Exactly Kent State by 3 5.0% Exactly Ohio by 14 4.3% Exactly Ohio by 17 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Ohio +9.8 Last season Ohio +3.3 Home field Kent State +3.1
Miami (OH) by 16.5 · 85% to win
Ours: Miami (OH) by 16.5 Bowling Green win 15% Miami (OH) win 85% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Bowling Green win by Miami (OH) win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bowling Green win 14.9% Miami (OH) win 85.1% Middle 50%: Miami (OH) by 6 to Miami (OH) by 28 50% Middle 90%: Bowling Green by 10 to Miami (OH) by 42 90% Middle 95%: Bowling Green by 15 to Miami (OH) by 48 95% Exactly Miami (OH) by 3 4.9% Exactly Miami (OH) by 7 4.7% Exactly Miami (OH) by 14 4.4% Exactly Miami (OH) by 21 4.3% Exactly Miami (OH) by 17 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Miami (OH) +12.8 Home field Miami (OH) +3.1 Last season Miami (OH) +0.6
Georgia State by 5.0 · 62% to win
Ours: Georgia State by 5.0 Old Dominion win 38% Georgia State win 62% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Old Dominion win by Georgia State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Old Dominion win 37.6% Georgia State win 62.4% Middle 50%: Old Dominion by 6 to Georgia State by 16 50% Middle 90%: Old Dominion by 21 to Georgia State by 31 90% Middle 95%: Old Dominion by 27 to Georgia State by 36 95% Exactly Georgia State by 3 6.9% Exactly Old Dominion by 3 6.2% Exactly Georgia State by 7 5.6% Exactly Old Dominion by 7 4.2% Exactly Georgia State by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Georgia State +15.4 Last season Old Dominion +13.6 Home field Georgia State +3.1
James Madison by 25.6 · 95% to win
Ours: James Madison by 25.6 Marshall win 5% James Madison win 95% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Marshall win by James Madison win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Marshall win 5.3% James Madison win 94.7% Middle 50%: James Madison by 15 to James Madison by 36 50% Middle 90%: Marshall by 1 to James Madison by 52 90% Middle 95%: Marshall by 6 to James Madison by 56 95% Exactly James Madison by 28 4.6% Exactly James Madison by 21 4.3% Exactly James Madison by 17 3.7% Exactly James Madison by 24 3.4% Exactly James Madison by 35 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents James Madison +16.6 Last season James Madison +6.0 Home field James Madison +3.1
Nebraska by 22.0 · 92% to win
Ours: Nebraska by 22.0 Maryland win 8% Nebraska win 92% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Maryland win by Nebraska win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Maryland win 8.3% Nebraska win 91.7% Middle 50%: Nebraska by 11 to Nebraska by 33 50% Middle 90%: Maryland by 4 to Nebraska by 49 90% Middle 95%: Maryland by 10 to Nebraska by 53 95% Exactly Nebraska by 21 4.4% Exactly Nebraska by 28 4.3% Exactly Nebraska by 17 4.1% Exactly Nebraska by 14 3.9% Exactly Nebraska by 7 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Nebraska +14.0 Last season Nebraska +4.8 Home field Nebraska +3.1
New Mexico by 28.4 · 96% to win
Ours: New Mexico by 28.4 UTEP win 4% New Mexico win 96% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← UTEP win by New Mexico win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance UTEP win 3.7% New Mexico win 96.3% Middle 50%: New Mexico by 17 to New Mexico by 39 50% Middle 90%: New Mexico by 3 to New Mexico by 55 90% Middle 95%: UTEP by 3 to New Mexico by 59 95% Exactly New Mexico by 56 4.8% Exactly New Mexico by 28 4.6% Exactly New Mexico by 21 4.0% Exactly New Mexico by 35 3.7% Exactly New Mexico by 31 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents New Mexico +21.8 Last season New Mexico +3.5 Home field New Mexico +3.1
South Carolina by 0.7 · 52% to win
Ours: South Carolina by 0.7 Kentucky win 48% South Carolina win 52% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Kentucky win by South Carolina win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Kentucky win 48.3% South Carolina win 51.7% Middle 50%: Kentucky by 10 to South Carolina by 11 50% Middle 90%: Kentucky by 26 to South Carolina by 27 90% Middle 95%: Kentucky by 31 to South Carolina by 32 95% Exactly South Carolina by 3 6.9% Exactly Kentucky by 3 6.8% Exactly South Carolina by 7 5.2% Exactly Kentucky by 7 5.0% Exactly South Carolina by 14 3.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field South Carolina +3.1 Last season Kentucky +1.3 This season, against its opponents Kentucky +1.2
Illinois by 16.8 · 85% to win
Ours: Illinois by 16.8 Purdue win 15% Illinois win 85% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Purdue win by Illinois win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Purdue win 14.5% Illinois win 85.5% Middle 50%: Illinois by 7 to Illinois by 28 50% Middle 90%: Purdue by 10 to Illinois by 43 90% Middle 95%: Purdue by 14 to Illinois by 49 95% Exactly Illinois by 3 4.8% Exactly Illinois by 7 4.7% Exactly Illinois by 14 4.3% Exactly Illinois by 21 4.3% Exactly Illinois by 17 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Illinois +7.9 Last season Illinois +5.7 Home field Illinois +3.1
Oregon State by 2.8 · 57% to win
Ours: Oregon State by 2.8 Oregon State win 57% Colorado State win 43% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Oregon State win by Colorado State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Oregon State win 56.9% Colorado State win 43.1% Middle 50%: Oregon State by 14 to Colorado State by 7 50% Middle 90%: Oregon State by 29 to Colorado State by 24 90% Middle 95%: Oregon State by 34 to Colorado State by 28 95% Exactly Oregon State by 3 7.0% Exactly Colorado State by 3 6.5% Exactly Oregon State by 7 5.4% Exactly Colorado State by 7 4.7% Exactly Oregon State by 14 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Oregon State +6.6 Home field Colorado State +3.1 Last season Colorado State +0.7
Florida Atlantic by 37.1 · 99% to win
Ours: Florida Atlantic by 37.1 Texas Southern win 1% Florida Atlantic win 99% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Texas Southern win by Florida Atlantic win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texas Southern win 1.0% Florida Atlantic win 99.0% Middle 50%: Florida Atlantic by 27 to Florida Atlantic by 48 50% Middle 90%: Florida Atlantic by 11 to Florida Atlantic by 62 90% Middle 95%: Florida Atlantic by 6 to Florida Atlantic by 68 95% Exactly Florida Atlantic by 56 12.9% Exactly Florida Atlantic by 42 4.5% Exactly Florida Atlantic by 49 4.1% Exactly Florida Atlantic by 35 4.0% Exactly Florida Atlantic by 28 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Florida Atlantic +21.0 This season, against its opponents Florida Atlantic +13.0 Home field Florida Atlantic +3.1
Texas A&M by 16.7 · 85% to win
Ours: Texas A&M by 16.7 Arkansas win 15% Texas A&M win 85% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Arkansas win by Texas A&M win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Arkansas win 14.7% Texas A&M win 85.3% Middle 50%: Texas A&M by 6 to Texas A&M by 28 50% Middle 90%: Arkansas by 10 to Texas A&M by 42 90% Middle 95%: Arkansas by 14 to Texas A&M by 49 95% Exactly Texas A&M by 3 4.8% Exactly Texas A&M by 7 4.7% Exactly Texas A&M by 14 4.3% Exactly Texas A&M by 21 4.3% Exactly Texas A&M by 17 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Texas A&M +8.3 This season, against its opponents Texas A&M +5.2 Home field Texas A&M +3.1
BYU by 4.1 · 60% to win
Ours: BYU by 4.1 BYU win 60% TCU win 40% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← BYU win by TCU win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance BYU win 60.2% TCU win 39.8% Middle 50%: BYU by 15 to TCU by 7 50% Middle 90%: BYU by 31 to TCU by 22 90% Middle 95%: BYU by 35 to TCU by 28 95% Exactly BYU by 3 7.0% Exactly TCU by 3 6.3% Exactly BYU by 7 5.5% Exactly TCU by 7 4.4% Exactly BYU by 14 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Last season BYU +4.8 Home field TCU +3.1 This season, against its opponents BYU +2.5
UTSA by 13.7 · 81% to win
Ours: UTSA by 13.7 UTSA win 81% Rice win 19% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← UTSA win by Rice win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance UTSA win 80.6% Rice win 19.4% Middle 50%: UTSA by 24 to UTSA by 3 50% Middle 90%: UTSA by 40 to Rice by 13 90% Middle 95%: UTSA by 45 to Rice by 18 95% Exactly UTSA by 3 5.6% Exactly UTSA by 7 5.1% Exactly UTSA by 14 4.4% Exactly UTSA by 17 4.2% Exactly Rice by 3 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents UTSA +8.8 Last season UTSA +8.1 Home field Rice +3.1
Georgia Southern by 0.3 · 51% to win
Ours: Georgia Southern by 0.3 Georgia Southern win 51% Coastal Carolina win 49% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Georgia Southern win by Coastal Carolina win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Georgia Southern win 50.8% Coastal Carolina win 49.2% Middle 50%: Georgia Southern by 11 to Coastal Carolina by 10 50% Middle 90%: Georgia Southern by 27 to Coastal Carolina by 26 90% Middle 95%: Georgia Southern by 32 to Coastal Carolina by 31 95% Exactly Georgia Southern by 3 6.9% Exactly Coastal Carolina by 3 6.8% Exactly Georgia Southern by 7 5.2% Exactly Coastal Carolina by 7 5.1% Exactly Georgia Southern by 14 3.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Georgia Southern +3.2 Home field Coastal Carolina +3.1 This season, against its opponents Georgia Southern +0.3
South Alabama by 20.5 · 90% to win
Ours: South Alabama by 20.5 UL Monroe win 10% South Alabama win 90% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← UL Monroe win by South Alabama win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance UL Monroe win 9.9% South Alabama win 90.1% Middle 50%: South Alabama by 10 to South Alabama by 31 50% Middle 90%: UL Monroe by 7 to South Alabama by 46 90% Middle 95%: UL Monroe by 11 to South Alabama by 52 95% Exactly South Alabama by 21 4.4% Exactly South Alabama by 17 4.2% Exactly South Alabama by 28 4.2% Exactly South Alabama by 14 4.1% Exactly South Alabama by 7 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents South Alabama +12.2 Last season South Alabama +5.2 Home field South Alabama +3.1
Texas Tech by 14.2 · 81% to win
Ours: Texas Tech by 14.2 Texas Tech win 81% Colorado win 19% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Texas Tech win by Colorado win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texas Tech win 81.5% Colorado win 18.6% Middle 50%: Texas Tech by 25 to Texas Tech by 3 50% Middle 90%: Texas Tech by 41 to Colorado by 12 90% Middle 95%: Texas Tech by 45 to Colorado by 17 95% Exactly Texas Tech by 3 5.5% Exactly Texas Tech by 7 5.1% Exactly Texas Tech by 14 4.4% Exactly Texas Tech by 17 4.2% Exactly Texas Tech by 21 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Texas Tech +10.0 This season, against its opponents Texas Tech +7.3 Home field Colorado +3.1
Miami by 15.8 · 84% to win
Ours: Miami by 15.8 Miami win 84% Clemson win 16% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Miami win by Clemson win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Miami win 84.0% Clemson win 16.0% Middle 50%: Miami by 27 to Miami by 5 50% Middle 90%: Miami by 42 to Clemson by 10 90% Middle 95%: Miami by 48 to Clemson by 16 95% Exactly Miami by 3 5.1% Exactly Miami by 7 4.8% Exactly Miami by 14 4.4% Exactly Miami by 17 4.3% Exactly Miami by 21 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Miami +17.7 Home field Clemson +3.1 Last season Miami +1.3
USC by 9.8 · 73% to win
Ours: USC by 9.8 Washington win 27% USC win 73% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Washington win by USC win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Washington win 26.9% USC win 73.1% Middle 50%: Washington by 2 to USC by 21 50% Middle 90%: Washington by 17 to USC by 36 90% Middle 95%: Washington by 21 to USC by 42 95% Exactly USC by 3 6.4% Exactly USC by 7 5.5% Exactly Washington by 3 5.1% Exactly USC by 14 4.3% Exactly USC by 17 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents USC +7.4 Home field USC +3.1 Last season Washington +0.8
Boise State by 18.8 · 88% to win
Ours: Boise State by 18.8 Utah State win 12% Boise State win 88% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Utah State win by Boise State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Utah State win 11.9% Boise State win 88.1% Middle 50%: Boise State by 7 to Boise State by 29 50% Middle 90%: Utah State by 7 to Boise State by 45 90% Middle 95%: Utah State by 13 to Boise State by 49 95% Exactly Boise State by 21 4.4% Exactly Boise State by 3 4.3% Exactly Boise State by 7 4.3% Exactly Boise State by 17 4.2% Exactly Boise State by 14 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Boise State +13.3 Home field Boise State +3.1 Last season Boise State +2.3
South Florida by 12.9 · 79% to win
Ours: South Florida by 12.9 Temple win 21% South Florida win 79% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Temple win by South Florida win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Temple win 20.8% South Florida win 79.2% Middle 50%: South Florida by 3 to South Florida by 24 50% Middle 90%: Temple by 14 to South Florida by 39 90% Middle 95%: Temple by 18 to South Florida by 45 95% Exactly South Florida by 3 5.8% Exactly South Florida by 7 5.2% Exactly South Florida by 14 4.4% Exactly Temple by 3 4.3% Exactly South Florida by 17 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents South Florida +7.5 Home field South Florida +3.1 Last season South Florida +2.3
Army by 5.7 · 64% to win
Ours: Army by 5.7 Army win 64% Louisiana Tech win 36% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Army win by Louisiana Tech win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Army win 63.9% Louisiana Tech win 36.1% Middle 50%: Army by 17 to Louisiana Tech by 5 50% Middle 90%: Army by 32 to Louisiana Tech by 21 90% Middle 95%: Army by 37 to Louisiana Tech by 26 95% Exactly Army by 3 6.9% Exactly Louisiana Tech by 3 6.0% Exactly Army by 7 5.6% Exactly Louisiana Tech by 7 4.1% Exactly Army by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Army +6.2 Home field Louisiana Tech +3.1 Last season Army +2.6
LSU by 52.4 · over 99% to win
Ours: LSU by 52.4 McNeese win 0% LSU win 100% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← McNeese win by LSU win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance McNeese win 0.0% LSU win 100.0% Middle 50%: LSU by 41 to LSU by 62 50% Middle 90%: LSU by 25 to LSU by 73 90% Middle 95%: LSU by 21 to LSU by 74 95% Exactly LSU by 56 40.5% Exactly LSU by 49 5.6% Exactly LSU by 52 4.4% Exactly LSU by 45 4.0% Exactly LSU by 42 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Last season LSU +30.4 This season, against its opponents LSU +18.8 Home field LSU +3.1
Indiana by 25.3 · 94% to win
Ours: Indiana by 25.3 Indiana win 94% Rutgers win 6% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Indiana win by Rutgers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Indiana win 94.4% Rutgers win 5.6% Middle 50%: Indiana by 35 to Indiana by 14 50% Middle 90%: Indiana by 52 to Rutgers by 2 90% Middle 95%: Indiana by 56 to Rutgers by 7 95% Exactly Indiana by 28 4.6% Exactly Indiana by 21 4.3% Exactly Indiana by 17 3.7% Exactly Indiana by 24 3.5% Exactly Indiana by 14 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Indiana +15.6 This season, against its opponents Indiana +12.8 Home field Rutgers +3.1
Louisiana by 8.9 · 71% to win
Ours: Louisiana by 8.9 Arkansas State win 29% Louisiana win 71% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Arkansas State win by Louisiana win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Arkansas State win 28.8% Louisiana win 71.2% Middle 50%: Arkansas State by 3 to Louisiana by 20 50% Middle 90%: Arkansas State by 17 to Louisiana by 35 90% Middle 95%: Arkansas State by 22 to Louisiana by 41 95% Exactly Louisiana by 3 6.5% Exactly Louisiana by 7 5.6% Exactly Arkansas State by 3 5.3% Exactly Louisiana by 14 4.2% Exactly Louisiana by 17 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Louisiana +5.8 Home field Louisiana +3.1 Last season Arkansas State +0.1
Washington State by 0.9 · 52% to win
Ours: Washington State by 0.9 Fresno State win 48% Washington State win 52% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Fresno State win by Washington State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Fresno State win 47.8% Washington State win 52.2% Middle 50%: Fresno State by 10 to Washington State by 12 50% Middle 90%: Fresno State by 25 to Washington State by 28 90% Middle 95%: Fresno State by 31 to Washington State by 32 95% Exactly Washington State by 3 6.9% Exactly Fresno State by 3 6.8% Exactly Washington State by 7 5.2% Exactly Fresno State by 7 5.0% Exactly Washington State by 14 3.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents Fresno State +6.0 Last season Washington State +3.7 Home field Washington State +3.1
Arizona State by 2.7 · 57% to win
Ours: Arizona State by 2.7 Baylor win 43% Arizona State win 57% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Baylor win by Arizona State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Baylor win 43.2% Arizona State win 56.8% Middle 50%: Baylor by 7 to Arizona State by 14 50% Middle 90%: Baylor by 24 to Arizona State by 29 90% Middle 95%: Baylor by 28 to Arizona State by 34 95% Exactly Arizona State by 3 7.0% Exactly Baylor by 3 6.5% Exactly Arizona State by 7 5.4% Exactly Baylor by 7 4.7% Exactly Arizona State by 14 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Arizona State +3.1 Last season Baylor +0.2 This season, against its opponents Baylor +0.2
Texas State by 1.2 · 53% to win
Ours: Texas State by 1.2 Texas State win 53% San Diego State win 47% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Texas State win by San Diego State win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texas State win 53.0% San Diego State win 47.0% Middle 50%: Texas State by 12 to San Diego State by 10 50% Middle 90%: Texas State by 28 to San Diego State by 25 90% Middle 95%: Texas State by 32 to San Diego State by 31 95% Exactly Texas State by 3 6.9% Exactly San Diego State by 3 6.7% Exactly Texas State by 7 5.3% Exactly San Diego State by 7 4.9% Exactly Texas State by 14 3.2%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Texas State +3.2 Home field San Diego State +3.1 This season, against its opponents Texas State +1.1
Arizona by 5.4 · 63% to win
Ours: Arizona by 5.4 Cincinnati win 37% Arizona win 63% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Cincinnati win by Arizona win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cincinnati win 36.7% Arizona win 63.3% Middle 50%: Cincinnati by 6 to Arizona by 17 50% Middle 90%: Cincinnati by 21 to Arizona by 32 90% Middle 95%: Cincinnati by 26 to Arizona by 37 95% Exactly Arizona by 3 6.9% Exactly Cincinnati by 3 6.1% Exactly Arizona by 7 5.6% Exactly Cincinnati by 7 4.2% Exactly Arizona by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Arizona +3.1 This season, against its opponents Arizona +3.1 Last season Cincinnati +0.9
Hawai'i by 3.1 · 58% to win
Ours: Hawai'i by 3.1 San José State win 42% Hawai'i win 58% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← San José State win by Hawai'i win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance San José State win 42.3% Hawai'i win 57.7% Middle 50%: San José State by 7 to Hawai'i by 14 50% Middle 90%: San José State by 24 to Hawai'i by 29 90% Middle 95%: San José State by 28 to Hawai'i by 35 95% Exactly Hawai'i by 3 7.0% Exactly San José State by 3 6.5% Exactly Hawai'i by 7 5.5% Exactly San José State by 7 4.6% Exactly Hawai'i by 14 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, against its opponents San José State +4.1 Last season Hawai'i +4.0 Home field Hawai'i +3.1
How good is it? This season so far: 85.8% of 331 FBS games picked right (log loss 0.341). The 331 games played before the forecasts went live were forecast afterwards from what was known before each kickoff.
Every FBS game from 2021 to 2025, each season forecast by a model fitted on the others (4,546 games):
Log loss and Brier score the probability, not just the pick: lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.693 and 0.250. College picks run higher than the NFL’s because so many games are mismatches.
Its win chances and ranges are honest: the P90 range held 91% of final margins, the P95 range 95%. Forecasts made further ahead are less sure: 74.4% picked right the week before, 72.4% four weeks ahead, 70.9% eight weeks ahead, with the curve widening from ±16.0 to ±17.1 points.
What goes in, and what doesn’t This season, against its opponents. Each team’s margins (capped at 50 points, so a blowout of a weak team doesn’t count for too much) and its results adjusted for luck (every kick, fumble bounce, 3rd and 4th down and judgment call re-rolled), each rated against the teams it has played.Last season. Each team starts from where it finished, pulled a fifth of the way back toward average.Home field. None at neutral sites. Not in it: who starts at quarterback and who is hurt, which college data doesn’t carry the way the NFL’s does, and the betting line.
Power rankings · How the luck is measured · NFL predictions
Western Kentucky at 
New Mexico State 
