College football · win probability
College football win probability from the spread, the score and the clock
A 3-point favorite wins 58% of college football games, a 7-point favorite 69% and a 14-point favorite 84%; at 28 points it’s 98%. Enter the line, the score and the time left to see the chance of winning at any point of a game.
Point spread to win probability, before kickoff
The favorite’s chance of winning at each closing line, from the model fitted on 5,311 college football games (2019, 2021-2025). The underdog’s is the rest. Where enough games closed at a line, what favorites actually won is beside it.
| Favored by | Favorite wins | Underdog wins | Favorites actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 point | 52.8% | 47.2% | |
| 2 points | 55.6% | 44.4% | |
| 3 points | 58.3% | 41.7% | 55.6% of 811 |
| 4 points | 61.1% | 38.9% | |
| 5 points | 63.7% | 36.3% | |
| 6 points | 66.3% | 33.7% | |
| 7 points | 68.8% | 31.2% | 71.6% of 599 |
| 8 points | 71.3% | 28.7% | |
| 9 points | 73.6% | 26.4% | |
| 10 points | 75.9% | 24.1% | 77.2% of 356 |
| 12 points | 80.0% | 20.0% | |
| 14 points | 83.7% | 16.3% | 84.6% of 345 |
| 17 points | 88.4% | 11.6% | |
| 20 points | 92.0% | 8.0% | |
| 21 points | 93.0% | 7.0% | 92.0% of 174 |
| 24 points | 95.4% | 4.6% | |
| 28 points | 97.5% | 2.5% | 96.5% of 115 |
| 31 points | 98.5% | 1.5% | |
| 35 points | 99.3% | 0.7% | |
| 40 points | 99.8% | 0.2% | |
| 45 points | 99.9% | 0.1% |
How it’s calculated
The final margin is close to normal around what’s expected: the current lead plus the part of the pre-game line the rest of the game is worth. Its spread shrinks with the time left:
P(win) = Φ((lead + 1.32 · line · t/60) / (18.9 · √(max(t, 5.4)/60)))
with t the minutes left. The three numbers are fitted by maximum likelihood on 811,262 snaps of 5,311 games with an FBS team, 2019, 2021-2025, each game counted once. Checked against what happened, sorted into tenths by its own prediction:
| Predicted | Won |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 12.2% | 11.6% |
| 26.3% | 25.4% |
| 41.9% | 42.3% |
| 58.1% | 57.7% |
| 73.7% | 74.6% |
| 87.8% | 88.4% |
| 97.3% | 97.1% |
| 99.9% | 99.8% |
It leaves out who has the ball and where: a team driving at the opponent’s 10 is worth about five points more than the score says. Our game pages’ win-probability charts include that (our own model), and every game page shows the pre-game line’s probability as “before kickoff”. What the line can’t tell you is how the game was actually played: that’s the replay on each game page, and the difference is the luck. How we measure luck
Questions
What is a 7-point favorite’s chance of winning in college football?
About 69% by the model; in the games themselves (2019, 2021-2025), 7-point favorites won 71.6% of 599. Seven is one of football’s key numbers, so the real rate sits a little off the smooth curve.
How is win probability calculated from the point spread?
The final margin is close to normal around the line, with a spread of about 18.9 points over a whole game that shrinks with the time left. The chance of winning is the share of that curve above zero.