luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 season · through Week 4

College football power rankings, week 5

All 138 FBS teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the points it would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field. Notre Dame is No. 1 at +27.1 points, Ohio State No. 2 (+25.2), Indiana No. 3 (+23.5).

Biggest climb since last week: UCLA, up 27 to No. 23. Biggest drop: Maryland, down 26 to No. 88. South Florida is 4–0 with +1.6 wins of luck in it, so it ranks below what the record says. The same ratings make our predictions.

#MoveTeam RecordRating This seasonLast season Luck
1 ▲2 Notre Dame Independent 4–0 +27.1 +15.1+12.0 +0.3
2 – Ohio State Big Ten 3–1 +25.2 +11.7+13.5 −0.7
3 ▼2 Indiana Big Ten 4–0 +23.5 +8.8+14.7 +0.2
4 – Alabama SEC 4–0 +23.3 +11.7+11.6 +0.3
5 ▲2 Georgia SEC 4–0 +23.1 +15.2+7.9 +0.1
6 ▼1 Texas SEC 4–0 +22.1 +9.3+12.8 +0.9
7 ▲1 Utah Big 12 4–0 +22.0 +12.0+10.0 +0.1
8 ▼2 Miami ACC 4–0 +21.8 +15.8+6.0 +0.2
9 ▲2 LSU SEC 3–1 +19.0 +8.7+10.3 −0.3
10 ▲5 Florida SEC 4–0 +17.6 +12.8+4.7 +0.3
11 ▲7 Oregon Big Ten 3–1 +16.7 +8.0+8.7 +0.5
12 ▼2 Tennessee SEC 3–1 +15.6 +8.9+6.7 +0.5
13 ▲1 Iowa Big Ten 4–0 +15.1 +7.4+7.8 +1.1
14 ▼5 Penn State Big Ten 3–1 +15.0 +7.8+7.2 +0.3
15 ▲10 Nebraska Big Ten 4–0 +13.4 +10.9+2.6 +0.6
16 ▲7 Texas Tech Big 12 4–0 +13.3 +6.0+7.4 +1.0
17 ▼5 Texas A&M SEC 2–2 +12.8 +1.2+11.5 +0.3
18 ▼2 Mississippi State SEC 4–0 +12.7 +10.8+1.9 +0.3
19 ▲1 BYU Big 12 3–0 +12.5 +6.9+5.6 +0.2
20 ▼7 Ole Miss SEC 3–1 +12.2 +0.7+11.5 +0.7
21 ▼2 USC Big Ten 4–1 +11.6 +3.3+8.3 +0.3
22 ▲2 Pittsburgh ACC 4–0 +11.3 +7.2+4.2 +0.6
23 ▲27 UCLA Big Ten 4–0 +11.2 +11.10.0 +0.7
24 ▼7 Oklahoma SEC 2–2 +10.9 +2.7+8.3 −0.5
25 ▲8 James Madison Sun Belt 4–0 +10.7 +8.7+1.9 +0.8
26 ▲5 Virginia ACC 3–1 +10.4 +7.4+3.0 0.0
27 ▲2 Duke ACC 4–0 +10.0 +5.1+4.9 +0.8
28 ▲10 Northwestern Big Ten 2–1 +9.7 +5.7+4.0 +0.3
29 ▲16 Boise State Pac-12 3–1 +9.7 +7.5+2.2 +0.5
30 ▼4 Iowa State Big 12 2–2 +9.3 +3.3+6.0 −0.3
31 ▼1 Auburn SEC 3–1 +9.2 −0.2+9.3 +0.3
32 ▼10 Louisville ACC 2–2 +8.6 −0.5+9.0 −0.7
33 ▼5 Michigan Big Ten 3–1 +8.5 −2.5+10.9 −0.2
34 ▼7 Kansas State Big 12 3–1 +8.4 +3.5+4.9 0.0
35 ▲2 Kentucky SEC 3–1 +8.1 +2.5+5.7 +0.2
36 ▼4 Missouri SEC 3–1 +7.9 +6.6+1.3 +0.2
37 ▼16 SMU ACC 3–1 +7.8 +3.0+4.7 −0.3
38 ▲2 Illinois Big Ten 2–2 +7.5 +1.1+6.4 −0.7
39 ▲5 Houston Big 12 3–1 +7.5 +9.0−1.5 −0.1
40 ▼6 Vanderbilt SEC 3–1 +7.3 −0.4+7.7 +0.2
41 – Arizona Big 12 3–1 +7.0 +4.2+2.8 +0.2
42 ▲4 North Texas American 2–2 +6.8 +2.8+4.0 −0.2
43 ▲20 Wisconsin Big Ten 3–1 +6.1 +4.5+1.6 +0.1
44 ▼8 South Carolina SEC 2–2 +5.7 +1.3+4.3 −0.3
45 ▲10 Toledo MAC 3–1 +5.4 +2.2+3.3 −0.4
46 ▼3 TCU Big 12 2–2 +5.3 +4.4+0.9 −0.4
47 ▼5 North Dakota State Mountain West 4–0 +5.1 +8.4−3.3 +1.0
48 ▼13 South Florida American 4–0 +5.1 +4.0+1.0 +1.6
49 ▼10 Washington Big Ten 3–1 +5.0 −4.1+9.1 +0.1
50 ▲2 New Mexico Mountain West 3–1 +4.9 +7.8−2.9 0.0
51 ▲2 Cincinnati Big 12 4–0 +4.8 +1.1+3.7 +0.8
52 ▲5 UCF Big 12 3–1 +4.6 +6.0−1.4 0.0
53 ▼5 Baylor Big 12 3–1 +4.5 +1.8+2.7 +0.2
54 ▼5 Arizona State Big 12 2–1 +4.1 +1.6+2.5 +0.4
55 ▲9 Wake Forest ACC 3–1 +3.7 +0.1+3.6 +0.9
56 ▼2 NC State ACC 2–2 +3.3 +2.2+1.1 +0.2
57 ▲4 UTSA American 3–1 +2.9 +1.4+1.6 +0.8
58 ▼11 Florida State ACC 2–2 +2.8 −1.4+4.2 −0.1
59 ▲10 Clemson ACC 3–1 +2.8 −1.9+4.7 +0.9
60 ▼2 Army American 2–1 +2.7 +4.3−1.5 +0.3
61 ▲5 Minnesota Big Ten 3–1 +2.6 +1.8+0.8 +0.6
62 ▼6 Michigan State Big Ten 2–2 +2.3 −2.6+4.8 0.0
63 ▼12 Virginia Tech ACC 4–0 +2.2 +6.3−4.0 +0.8
64 ▲4 Memphis American 3–1 +1.1 +1.6−0.5 −0.2
65 ▲12 Texas State Pac-12 2–2 +0.1 −3.4+3.5 −0.7
66 ▲7 North Carolina ACC 2–1 −0.4 +1.9−2.3 0.0
67 ▲17 Oregon State Pac-12 2–2 −0.6 +4.0−4.6 −0.8
68 ▲15 Oklahoma State Big 12 3–1 −0.6 +5.8−6.3 0.0
69 ▲3 Kansas Big 12 1–2 −0.6 −3.8+3.2 −1.0
70 – Georgia Tech ACC 1–3 −0.7 −5.7+4.9 −1.9
71 ▲16 Arkansas SEC 2–2 −0.8 −4.0+3.2 0.0
72 ▼5 Fresno State Pac-12 3–1 −1.0 +0.5−1.5 +0.9
73 ▼14 West Virginia Big 12 3–1 −1.4 −0.1−1.4 +0.6
74 ▼9 Tulane American 2–2 −1.5 −4.9+3.4 +0.7
75 ▼15 Western Michigan MAC 2–2 −1.5 −0.6−0.9 +0.5
76 ▲9 UNLV Mountain West 2–2 −1.9 −0.8−1.1 +0.2
77 ▼6 UConn Independent 2–2 −2.0 +1.8−3.8 −0.3
78 ▲11 Liberty Conference USA 3–1 −2.1 +5.2−7.2 +0.3
79 ▼4 East Carolina American 2–2 −2.4 −3.5+1.2 −0.2
80 ▲16 Louisiana Sun Belt 3–1 −3.1 +2.6−5.7 +0.3
81 ▼5 Syracuse ACC 1–2 −3.1 −0.3−2.8 −0.9
82 ▼8 Washington State Pac-12 1–3 −3.3 −5.5+2.2 −0.4
83 ▼1 Colorado Big 12 2–2 −4.0 −1.3−2.7 +0.3
84 ▼3 San Diego State Pac-12 1–3 −4.3 −4.6+0.3 −0.6
85 ▼7 Temple American 1–3 −4.7 −3.4−1.3 −1.5
86 ▼7 Navy American 1–2 −4.9 −1.5−3.5 −0.8
87 ▲20 Rutgers Big Ten 1–3 −4.9 −4.1−0.8 −1.6
88 ▼26 Maryland Big Ten 2–2 −5.4 −3.2−2.2 −0.7
89 ▲14 Georgia State Sun Belt 3–1 −5.5 +5.9−11.4 +0.4
90 ▼2 California ACC 2–2 −5.7 −5.1−0.6 +0.5
91 ▲7 Air Force Mountain West 2–1 −5.7 −1.0−4.7 −0.3
92 ▼2 App State Sun Belt 3–1 −5.8 +1.4−7.2 +0.3
93 ▲6 Miami (OH) MAC 2–2 −5.9 −3.4−2.4 −0.4
94 ▲7 Utah State Pac-12 1–3 −5.9 −5.8−0.1 −1.2
95 ▼2 Purdue Big Ten 1–3 −6.1 −6.8+0.7 −0.6
96 ▼1 Louisiana Tech Sun Belt 1–2 −6.1 −1.9−4.2 −0.2
97 ▼5 Ohio MAC 2–2 −6.5 −2.3−4.1 +0.3
98 ▲7 Colorado State Pac-12 2–2 −6.5 −2.6−3.9 +0.2
99 ▼5 Jacksonville State Conference USA 3–2 −6.6 −0.7−5.9 −0.4
100 ▼20 Tulsa American 3–1 −6.9 +2.1−8.9 +0.9
101 ▼10 South Alabama Sun Belt 2–2 −7.0 −3.1−4.0 +0.8
102 ▼16 Old Dominion Sun Belt 1–3 −7.3 −9.5+2.1 −0.6
103 ▼1 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 1–3 −8.1 −2.2−5.8 −0.7
104 ▼4 Troy Sun Belt 2–2 −8.1 −3.0−5.2 +0.2
105 ▲11 Florida Atlantic American 3–1 −8.2 −3.0−5.2 +1.1
106 ▲6 Stanford ACC 2–2 −8.3 −11.8+3.5 +0.4
107 ▲1 Arkansas State Sun Belt 2–2 −8.8 −3.2−5.7 +0.3
108 ▲3 Kennesaw State Conference USA 1–3 −8.9 −3.2−5.7 −0.8
109 ▼12 Delaware Conference USA 2–2 −9.8 −3.9−6.0 0.0
110 ▲3 Boston College ACC 2–2 −10.0 −8.4−1.7 +0.4
111 ▼1 Nevada Mountain West 1–3 −10.1 −4.7−5.3 −1.2
112 ▼6 Florida International Conference USA 2–2 −10.3 −3.2−7.1 −0.9
113 ▲15 Massachusetts MAC 4–0 −11.0 +8.5−19.5 +0.3
114 ▲4 UAB American 2–2 −11.5 −6.1−5.4 +0.6
115 ▼11 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 1–3 −11.5 −2.5−9.0 −0.9
116 ▼7 Marshall Sun Belt 3–1 −11.8 −7.8−4.0 +1.6
117 ▲7 Southern Miss Sun Belt 1–3 −11.9 −7.3−4.7 −0.5
118 ▲2 Missouri State Conference USA 1–3 −12.3 −8.7−3.6 −0.8
119 – San José State Mountain West 2–2 −12.6 −6.6−6.0 0.0
120 ▼6 Hawai'i Mountain West 1–3 −12.7 −10.6−2.0 +0.3
121 ▼6 Sam Houston Conference USA 1–3 −12.9 −3.0−10.0 −1.2
122 ▲3 Western Kentucky Conference USA 1–3 −13.0 −10.5−2.5 0.0
123 – Rice American 1–3 −13.9 −7.4−6.5 −1.0
124 ▼2 Middle Tennessee Conference USA 2–2 −14.5 −3.8−10.7 −0.4
125 ▼4 Central Michigan MAC 2–2 −14.5 −8.7−5.8 +0.3
126 ▲4 Wyoming Mountain West 2–2 −14.9 −8.2−6.8 +0.5
127 ▼10 New Mexico State Conference USA 1–3 −15.5 −7.8−7.7 −0.8
128 ▼2 Northern Illinois Mountain West 0–4 −16.8 −8.7−8.1 −1.2
129 ▼2 Akron MAC 1–3 −17.6 −10.0−7.6 −0.4
130 ▲4 Eastern Michigan MAC 2–3 −18.1 −11.8−6.3 −0.3
131 ▲5 Bowling Green MAC 0–4 −19.2 −16.2−3.0 −0.6
132 ▲5 Kent State MAC 2–2 −19.6 −12.2−7.5 +0.1
133 – Ball State MAC 1–3 −20.1 −9.5−10.6 0.0
134 ▼5 Buffalo MAC 2–2 −20.4 −10.0−10.4 +0.5
135 ▼4 UTEP Mountain West 1–3 −20.4 −14.0−6.5 0.0
136 ▼4 Charlotte American 0–4 −22.4 −12.9−9.5 −1.1
137 ▼2 Sacramento State MAC 1–4 −23.8 −12.7−11.1 −0.3
138 – UL Monroe Sun Belt 0–4 −24.3 −15.2−9.1 −1.2

Rating: points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s games, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: wins above what the team’s play was worth, from replaying every game 4,000 times. Injuries, which change the week’s predictions, are left out: one week’s news.

Top 25, week 5

  1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish +27.1, 4–0
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes +25.2, 3–1
  3. Indiana Hoosiers +23.5, 4–0
  4. Alabama Crimson Tide +23.3, 4–0
  5. Georgia Bulldogs +23.1, 4–0
  6. Texas Longhorns +22.1, 4–0
  7. Utah Utes +22.0, 4–0
  8. Miami Hurricanes +21.8, 4–0
  9. LSU Tigers +19.0, 3–1
  10. Florida Gators +17.6, 4–0
  11. Oregon Ducks +16.7, 3–1
  12. Tennessee Volunteers +15.6, 3–1
  13. Iowa Hawkeyes +15.1, 4–0
  14. Penn State Nittany Lions +15.0, 3–1
  15. Nebraska Cornhuskers +13.4, 4–0
  16. Texas Tech Red Raiders +13.3, 4–0
  17. Texas A&M Aggies +12.8, 2–2
  18. Mississippi State Bulldogs +12.7, 4–0
  19. BYU Cougars +12.5, 3–0
  20. Ole Miss Rebels +12.2, 3–1
  21. USC Trojans +11.6, 4–1
  22. Pittsburgh Panthers +11.3, 4–0
  23. UCLA Bruins +11.2, 4–0
  24. Oklahoma Sooners +10.9, 2–2
  25. James Madison Dukes +10.7, 4–0

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the college football power rankings for week 5 of 2026?

Notre Dame, rated +27.1 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field, from a 4–0 start. Next: Ohio State (+25.2) and Indiana (+23.5).

How are these power rankings made?

Every team, FBS and FCS, is rated against the opponents it has played: each game’s final margin (capped at 50) and its luck-adjusted result, with the kicks, fumble bounces and conversions re-rolled at their expected rates. Last season’s rating is the starting point and fades as games are played. The rating is the points a team would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with a better record ranked lower?

Because records carry luck, and close games, fumble bounces and missed kicks even out. A team that won its games by luck is rated on how it played, like South Florida: 4–0, +1.6 wins of luck, ranked 48; one that lost by bad luck ranks higher than its record, like Georgia Tech (1–3, −1.9 wins of luck, ranked 70).

Predictions · Luck rankings 2026 · Expected wins · How the replays work