Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: luck and expected wins

Louisiana is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 43rd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Louisiana wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Lamar	W 38–7	100%	0
Week 2	@ USC	L 30–49	4%	−4
Week 3	vs UAB	W 21–14	74%	+26
Week 4	@ Charlotte	W 34–7	90%	+10

Wk 1 0 vs LAM

Wk 2 −4 @ USC

Wk 3 +26 vs UAB

Wk 4 +10 @ CLT

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Louisiana win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Arkansas State	Louisiana by 8.9	71%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech by 0.2	50%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Troy	Louisiana by 8.2	69%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Southern Miss	Louisiana by 5.7	63%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs South Alabama	Louisiana by 7.0	66%
Week 11 · Nov 12	at UL Monroe	Louisiana by 18.1	86%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Coastal Carolina	Louisiana by 11.6	75%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Georgia State	Georgia State by 0.8	48%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Louisiana’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.13	+6.0
Fumble bounces	−0.07	+1.5

Luckiest wins

Wins Louisiana takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	vs UL Monroe	W 30–27	13%	+87
2025 Week 11	vs Texas State	W 42–39	14%	+86
2025 Week 13	@ Arkansas State	W 34–30	16%	+84
2025 Week 5	vs Marshall	W 54–51	29%	+71
2025 Week 10	@ South Alabama	W 31–22	66%	+34

Unluckiest losses

Losses Louisiana would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 8	vs Southern Miss	L 10–22	66%	−66
2025 Week 4	@ Eastern Michigan	L 31–34	58%	−58
2025 Week 9	@ Troy	L 23–35	38%	−38
2025 68 Ventures Bowl	vs Delaware	L 13–20	26%	−26
2025 Week 1	vs Rice	L 12–14	25%	−25

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	4.3	+1.7	4–2	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Rice	L 12–14	25%	−25
Week 2	vs McNeese	W 34–10	82%	+18
Week 3	@ Missouri	L 10–52	0%	0
Week 4	@ Eastern Michigan	L 31–34	58%	−58
Week 5	vs Marshall	W 54–51	29%	+71
Week 7	@ James Madison	L 14–24	21%	−21
Week 8	vs Southern Miss	L 10–22	66%	−66
Week 9	@ Troy	L 23–35	38%	−38
Week 10	@ South Alabama	W 31–22	66%	+34
Week 11	vs Texas State	W 42–39	14%	+86
Week 13	@ Arkansas State	W 34–30	16%	+84
Week 14	vs UL Monroe	W 30–27	13%	+87
68 Ventures Bowl	vs Delaware	L 13–20	26%	−26