Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 17 of the 32 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Southern Miss at Louisiana, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Southern Miss beat Louisiana 22–10, but the replays lean toward Louisiana: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Southern Miss was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:40 left): Sideline Interference on Louisiana, 15 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to Louisiana.
Final
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 22 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Southern Miss very lucky · −66 Louisiana
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southern Miss wins 3, Louisiana wins 7.
- 1 USM 21 UL 7
- 2 USM 21 UL 14
- 3 USM 13 UL 10
- 4 USM 0 UL 3
- 5 USM 10 UL 14
- 6 USM 10 UL 17
- 7 USM 14 UL 24
- 8 USM 0 UL 14
- 9 USM 3 UL 20
- 10 USM 0 UL 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Southern Miss wins 34% of them, Louisiana 66%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Southern Miss by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 3.7% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 8.4% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 18.7% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 25.2% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Louisiana by 17+ | 19.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Southern Miss 4 for 28 yards, Louisiana 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:29 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UL +1.1 pts |
| Q3 11:16 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +2% USM +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +6% UL +2.2 pts |
| Q3 4:31 | Holding on Southern Miss, 3 yards | +2% UL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:40 | Sideline Interference on Louisiana, 15 yards | +17% UL +5.3 pts |
| Q3 1:03 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USM +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:32 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +3% USM +0.9 pts |
| Q4 10:23 | Running Into the Kicker on Louisiana, 5 yards | +3% USM +1.9 pts |
| Q4 8:27 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UL +1.1 pts |
| Q4 6:12 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:49 | Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +3% UL | USM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:21 | Louisiana converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +4% UL | UL: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 8:02 | Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +3% UL | USM: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 7:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Southern Miss, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% UL | UL: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 4:50 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% USM | UL: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 3:40 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedSideline Interference on Louisiana, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% UL | USM: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 13:32 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% USM | USM: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 10:23 | Running Into the Kicker on Louisiana, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +3% USM | USM: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southern Miss 99% · Louisiana 1%
- Final margin
- Southern Miss by 12
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southern Miss by 14.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Southern Miss 34% · Louisiana 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 17 of the 32 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Southern Miss · 
Louisiana
More from Week 8 2025
- Troy at UL Monroe TROY 37–14 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–24 · replay 63% for the winner
- Arkansas State at South Alabama ARST 15–14 · replay 66% for the winner
- Texas State at Marshall MRSH 40–37 · replay 71% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at App State CCU 45–37 · replay 79% for the winner
- Old Dominion at James Madison JMU 63–27 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner