luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Troy at UL Monroe, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Troy beat UL Monroe 37–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Troy wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Troy was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:34 left): UL Monroe converted 4th & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to UL Monroe.

Final

Troy Trojans 37
UL Monroe Warhawks 14

October 18, 2025 · Malone Stadium · Closing line: Troy −4.5

Luck index +42 Troy lucky · −42 UL Monroe

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Troy wins 6, UL Monroe wins 4.

  1. 1 TROY 37 ULM 10
  2. 2 TROY 33 ULM 14
  3. 3 TROY 31 ULM 17
  4. 4 TROY 17 ULM 7
  5. 5 TROY 10 ULM 3
  6. 6 TROY 20 ULM 17
  7. 7 TROY 14 ULM 17
  8. 8 TROY 10 ULM 17
  9. 9 TROY 21 ULM 34
  10. 10 TROY 20 ULM 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Troy wins 58% of them, UL Monroe 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Troy by 17+18.6%
Troy by 9–1618.2%
Troy by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
UL Monroe by 1–821.5%
UL Monroe by 9–1610.9%
UL Monroe by 17+8.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to Troy: the final margin was Troy by 23, without the luck Troy by 20.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Taylor Renfroe, 29 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Hagan, 32 yds missed · 84% expected
  • S. Taylor Renfroe, 41 yds made · 72% expected
  • S. Taylor Renfroe, 26 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Troy 4 for 34 yards, UL Monroe 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:48 Holding on Troy, 10 yards +2% ULM +1.3 pts
Q1 4:07 Offside on Troy, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% ULM +1.4 pts
Q2 14:05 Holding on Troy, 10 yards +1% ULM +0.6 pts
Q2 6:10 Delay of Game on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TROY +0.2 pts
Q2 2:16 False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TROY +0.4 pts
Q3 9:29 Holding on Troy, 10 yards +3% ULM +1.3 pts
Q3 0:32 Unnecessary Roughness on UL Monroe, 15 yards +4% TROY +2.3 pts
Q4 12:51 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UL Monroe, 15 yards 0% TROY +1.1 pts

When it happened

UL Monroe’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UL Monroe was ahead in it, below while Troy was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:32 Troy converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% TROY TROY: Field goal
2 Q2 11:53 Troy was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +4% ULM TROY: Punt
3 Q2 8:34 UL Monroe converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% ULM ULM: Missed field goal
4 Q2 3:06 Troy converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% TROY TROY: Punt
5 Q3 9:40 UL Monroe converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedUL Monroe missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +4% ULM ULM: Punt
6 Q3 2:53 Troy converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +5% TROY TROY: Field goal
7 Q3 1:25 Troy was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% ULM TROY: Field goal
8 Q3 0:32 Unnecessary Roughness on UL Monroe, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% TROY TROY: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Troy 100% · UL Monroe 0%

Final margin
Troy by 23
Luck in points
2.9 for Troy
Luck-adjusted margin
Troy by 20.1
Replay with same day's form
Troy 58% · UL Monroe 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Troy · UL Monroe

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