Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Old Dominion at James Madison, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Old Dominion 63–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 9 of 10. Old Dominion had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 20 points of win probability to Old Dominion.
An off day for Old Dominion: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against James Madison it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff James Madison was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:54 left): Return touchdown by Old Dominion, worth 48 points of win probability to Old Dominion.
Final
 Old Dominion Monarchs | 27 |
|---|---|
 James Madison Dukes | 63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 James Madison about even · −10 Old Dominion
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Old Dominion wins 1, James Madison wins 9.
- 1 ODU 34 JMU 28
- 2 ODU 35 JMU 38
- 3 ODU 34 JMU 41
- 4 ODU 30 JMU 41
- 5 ODU 35 JMU 49
- 6 ODU 45 JMU 63
- 7 ODU 21 JMU 43
- 8 ODU 7 JMU 35
- 9 ODU 9 JMU 42
- 10 ODU 13 JMU 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Old Dominion
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against James Madison it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for Old Dominion: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion offenseEPA per play gained | +0.43 | +0.14 | better by 0.29 |
| Old Dominion defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.54 | +0.04 | worse by 0.50 |
| James Madison offenseEPA per play gained | +0.54 | +0.07 | better by 0.47 |
| James Madison defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.43 | −0.03 | worse by 0.46 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Old Dominion wins 10% of them, James Madison 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 36.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Old Dominion by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Old Dominion by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Old Dominion by 1–8 | 6.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 12.5% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| James Madison by 17+ | 58.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Old Dominion 4 for 28 yards, James Madison 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:47 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | +1% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 11:20 | Offside on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ODU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:15 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | +2% ODU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:04 | Targeting on Old Dominion, 3 yards | +2% JMU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:17 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ODU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 8:15 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | +1% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 8:23 | Personal Foul on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% ODU +1.9 pts |
When it happened
James Madison’s chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:54 | James Madison fumbled and Old Dominion recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Old DominionSpecial teams | +48% ODU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:36 | James Madison converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% JMU | JMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:45 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% ODU | JMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:41 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% ODU | ODU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 1:34 | Old Dominion fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ODU | ODU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 8:27 | James Madison converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 6:52 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% ODU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 5:06 | James Madison converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Old Dominion 0% · James Madison 100%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 36
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for James Madison
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 31.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Old Dominion 10% · James Madison 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Old Dominion · 
James Madison
More from Week 8 2025
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Troy at UL Monroe TROY 37–14 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–24 · replay 63% for the winner
- Arkansas State at South Alabama ARST 15–14 · replay 66% for the winner
- Texas State at Marshall MRSH 40–37 · replay 71% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at App State CCU 45–37 · replay 79% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner