Week 8 2025 · October 14, 2025
Florida International at Western Kentucky, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida International beat Western Kentucky 25–6, but the replays lean toward Western Kentucky: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Western Kentucky was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:45 left): Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to Florida International.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Florida International very lucky · −67 Western Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida International wins 3, Western Kentucky wins 7.
- 1 FIU 34 WKU 14
- 2 FIU 24 WKU 14
- 3 FIU 20 WKU 17
- 4 FIU 17 WKU 20
- 5 FIU 17 WKU 21
- 6 FIU 17 WKU 24
- 7 FIU 17 WKU 30
- 8 FIU 10 WKU 26
- 9 FIU 17 WKU 38
- 10 FIU 3 WKU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida International wins 33% of them, Western Kentucky 67%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida International by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida International by 17+ | 5.7% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 23.8% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 23.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Grant, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- N. Grant, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Cannon, 28 yds made · 91% expected
- N. Grant, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- N. Grant, 51 yds made · 52% expected
- J. Cassidy, 55 yds made · 45% expected
Penalties: Florida International 9 for 75 yards, Western Kentucky 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:44 | Illegal Substitution on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.2 pts |
| Q1 0:48 | Ineligible Downfield on Florida International, 5 yards | +1% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +8% FIU +3.3 pts |
| Q2 7:41 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% FIU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 6:05 | Face Mask on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +2% FIU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:27 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% WKU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 4:07 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% WKU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:50 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | +1% WKU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:58 | Offside on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WKU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:55 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:23 | Personal Foul on Florida International, 15 yards | 0% WKU +1.8 pts |
| Q4 6:04 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | 0% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:03 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Western Kentucky’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:51 | Florida International converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 10:48 | Florida International converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% FIU | FIU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:45 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedPass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% FIU | FIU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 7:41 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 4:07 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% WKU | WKU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 2:57 | N. Grant made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +5% FIU | FIU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 13:05 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +4% FIU | WKU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 6:01 | Florida International converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% FIU | FIU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida International 100% · Western Kentucky 0%
- Final margin
- Florida International by 19
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Western Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida International by 21.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida International 33% · Western Kentucky 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Florida International · 
Western Kentucky
More from Week 8 2025
- New Mexico State at Liberty LIB 30–27 · replay 42% for the winner
- Delaware at Jacksonville State JXST 38–25 · replay 79% for the winner
- UTEP vs Sam Houston UTEP 35–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Arizona State ASU 26–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Syracuse PITT 30–13 · replay 43% for the winner
- Buffalo at Massachusetts BUF 28–21 · replay 43% for the winner