Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: luck and expected wins
Western Kentucky is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.0 wins. Luck cost 0.0: the 62nd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Western Kentucky wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Nevada | L 14–49 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Georgia | L 20–70 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 3 | @ Indiana | L 0–38 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Mercyhurst | W 52–7 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Western Kentucky win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 1 | at New Mexico State |  New Mexico State by 0.6 | 48% |
| Week 6 · Oct 8 | vs Missouri State |  Western Kentucky by 2.5 | 56% |
| Week 7 · Oct 14 | at Sam Houston |  Sam Houston by 3.2 | 42% |
| Week 9 · Oct 27 | vs Delaware |  Delaware even | 50% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Middle Tennessee |  Middle Tennessee by 1.7 | 46% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Jacksonville State |  Jacksonville State by 3.3 | 42% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Liberty |  Liberty by 14.1 | 20% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Kennesaw State |  Kennesaw State by 1.0 | 48% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Western Kentucky’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | −0.03 | +8.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.08 | +3.2 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Western Kentucky takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Delaware | W 27–24 | 23% | +77 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Louisiana Tech | W 28–27 | 47% | +53 |
| 2025 New Orleans Bowl | vs Southern Miss | W 27–16 | 51% | +49 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Missouri State | W 27–22 | 55% | +45 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Sam Houston | W 41–24 | 71% | +29 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Western Kentucky would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Florida International | L 6–25 | 67% | −67 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Jacksonville State | L 34–37 | 56% | −56 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ LSU | L 10–13 | 25% | −25 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Toledo | L 21–45 | 1% | −1 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Georgia | L 20–70 | 1% | −1 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 3–2 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Sam Houston | W 41–24 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 1 | vs North Alabama | W 55–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Toledo | L 21–45 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 4 | vs Nevada | W 31–16 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 5 | @ Missouri State | W 27–22 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 6 | @ Delaware | W 27–24 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 8 | vs Florida International | L 6–25 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 9 | @ Louisiana Tech | W 28–27 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 10 | vs New Mexico State | W 35–16 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 12 | vs Middle Tennessee | W 42–26 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 13 | @ LSU | L 10–13 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 14 | @ Jacksonville State | L 34–37 | 56% | −56 |
| New Orleans Bowl | vs Southern Miss | W 27–16 | 51% | +49 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Conference USA teams by luck
- Conference USA: Delaware,
Florida International, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Middle Tennessee, 
Missouri State, New Mexico State, Sam Houston
How many wins does Western Kentucky have in 2026?
1–3 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.0 wins.
Was Western Kentucky lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: 0.0 wins of luck, the 62nd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Western Kentucky’s luckiest season?
2025: 8–4 from play worth 7.1 wins, +0.9 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 1–3 from play worth 1.0 (0.0).