Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee 42–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Kentucky wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Kentucky was an 81% favorite.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Western Kentucky about even · −7 Middle Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Middle Tennessee wins 1, Western Kentucky wins 9.
- 1 MTSU 37 WKU 31
- 2 MTSU 41 WKU 44
- 3 MTSU 48 WKU 56
- 4 MTSU 23 WKU 36
- 5 MTSU 24 WKU 42
- 6 MTSU 27 WKU 48
- 7 MTSU 35 WKU 61
- 8 MTSU 24 WKU 56
- 9 MTSU 14 WKU 52
- 10 MTSU 26 WKU 73
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Middle Tennessee wins 7% of them, Western Kentucky 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 10.8% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 14.8% |
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 66.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Hathaway, 25 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Cannon, 26 yds missed · 91% expected
- J. Hathaway, 23 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Middle Tennessee 10 for 80 yards, Western Kentucky 5 for 34 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:39 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +3% WKU +2.9 pts |
| Q1 2:55 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +2% WKU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 11:04 | False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MTSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:12 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:05 | Ineligible Downfield on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards | 0% WKU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:25 | Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WKU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% MTSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:17 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +1% MTSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 8:22 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +2% WKU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 13:07 | Roughing the Passer on Western Kentucky, 2 yards | +3% MTSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:49 | Roughing the Passer on Western Kentucky, 2 yards | +1% MTSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:43 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MTSU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 12:30 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WKU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:20 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | 0% WKU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:00 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% WKU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Western Kentucky’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:39 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% WKU | WKU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 0:22 | Middle Tennessee was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +4% WKU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 13:40 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +2% WKU | WKU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 7:25 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +3% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:35 | J. Cannon missed a 26-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +6% MTSU | WKU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 1:38 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% MTSU | MTSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 0:12 | Middle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% WKU | MTSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 13:07 | Roughing the Passer on Western Kentucky, 2 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MTSU | MTSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Middle Tennessee 1% · Western Kentucky 99%
- Final margin
- Western Kentucky by 16
- Luck in points
- 2.7 for Western Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Kentucky by 13.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Middle Tennessee 7% · Western Kentucky 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Middle Tennessee · 
Western Kentucky
More from Week 12 2025
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State JXST 35–26 · replay 64% for the winner
- Liberty at Florida International FIU 34–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- UTEP at Missouri State MOST 38–24 · replay 85% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Washington State WSU 28–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner