Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
UTEP at Missouri State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri State beat UTEP 38–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri State wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Missouri State was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): Missouri State converted 3rd & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to Missouri State.
Final
 UTEP Miners | 24 |
|---|---|
 Missouri State Bears | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Missouri State about even · −15 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTEP wins 2, Missouri State wins 8.
- 1 UTEP 31 MOST 17
- 2 UTEP 13 MOST 10
- 3 UTEP 10 MOST 13
- 4 UTEP 17 MOST 21
- 5 UTEP 13 MOST 21
- 6 UTEP 3 MOST 14
- 7 UTEP 10 MOST 24
- 8 UTEP 16 MOST 34
- 9 UTEP 0 MOST 23
- 10 UTEP 3 MOST 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTEP wins 15% of them, Missouri State 85%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri State by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTEP by 17+ | 1.2% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 3.9% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 9.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 22.1% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 23.7% |
| Missouri State by 17+ | 35.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Y. Obeid, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- T. Cragun, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
- T. Cragun, 26 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: UTEP 6 for 59 yards, Missouri State 9 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MOST +1.8 pts |
| Q1 11:16 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.4 pts |
| Q1 7:43 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MOST +4.2 pts |
| Q1 6:11 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:29 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +1.0 pts |
| Q2 6:29 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:29 | Offside on Missouri State, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST +0.1 pts |
| Q2 6:29 | Offside on Missouri State, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:58 | Pass Interference on UTEP, 9 yards | 0% MOST +2.2 pts |
| Q3 9:52 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:56 | Targeting on Missouri State, 15 yards | 0% UTEP +0.3 pts |
| Q4 10:14 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% UTEP +2.3 pts |
| Q4 10:14 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | +9% MOST +3.8 pts |
| Q4 10:14 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | +2% MOST +1.4 pts |
| Q4 2:19 | Pass Interference on UTEP, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% MOST +4.3 pts |
When it happened
Missouri State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | UTEP converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedUTEP converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedUTEP was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedFalse Start on UTEP, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:43 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedMissouri State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedHolding on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% MOST | UTEP: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 12:50 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedT. Cragun missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +3% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 5:00 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 273rd & 4th downs · 10% expected | +5% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:15 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedReturn touchdown by UTEPSpecial teams | +7% UTEP | MOST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedMissouri State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +10% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 11:09 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedUTEP was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:14 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedHolding on Missouri State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsHolding on UTEP, 10 yardsJudgment callsHolding on UTEP, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTEP 18% · Missouri State 82%
- Final margin
- Missouri State by 14
- Luck in points
- 8.5 for Missouri State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri State by 5.5
- Replay with same day's form
- UTEP 15% · Missouri State 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
UTEP · 
Missouri State
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