Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress
Missouri State Bears: luck and expected wins
Missouri State is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.8 wins. Luck cost 0.8: the 18th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Missouri State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Texas A&M | L 0–50 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Lindenwood | W 48–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Marshall | L 24–30 | 78% | −78 |
| Week 4 | @ SMU | L 24–34 | 1% | −1 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Missouri State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 8 | at Western Kentucky |  Western Kentucky by 2.5 | 44% |
| Week 7 · Oct 14 | vs Kennesaw State |  Kennesaw State by 0.3 | 49% |
| Week 8 · Oct 20 | at Delaware |  Delaware by 5.7 | 37% |
| Week 9 · Oct 27 | vs Sam Houston |  Missouri State by 3.7 | 59% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Florida International |  Florida International by 5.2 | 38% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs New Mexico State | Missouri State by 6.3 | 65% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Jacksonville State |  Jacksonville State by 8.9 | 30% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Liberty |  Liberty by 7.2 | 34% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Missouri State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | −0.03 | −2.1 |
| Kicks | −0.04 | −1.4 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.04 | −7.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.05 | −14.8 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Missouri State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Middle Tennessee | W 22–20 | 40% | +60 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ New Mexico State | W 24–17 | 44% | +56 |
| 2025 Week 10 | vs Florida International | W 28–21 | 59% | +41 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Marshall | W 21–20 | 76% | +24 |
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Liberty | W 21–17 | 76% | +24 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Missouri State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Marshall | L 24–30 | 78% | −78 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Kennesaw State | L 34–41 | 77% | −77 |
| 2025 Week 3 | vs SMU | L 10–28 | 54% | −54 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Louisiana Tech | L 30–42 | 54% | −54 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Western Kentucky | L 22–27 | 45% | −45 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–5 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 5–2 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ USC | L 13–73 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Marshall | W 21–20 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 3 | vs SMU | L 10–28 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 4 | vs UT Martin | W 42–10 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 5 | vs Western Kentucky | L 22–27 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 7 | @ Middle Tennessee | W 22–20 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 9 | @ New Mexico State | W 24–17 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 10 | vs Florida International | W 28–21 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 11 | @ Liberty | W 21–17 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 12 | vs UTEP | W 38–24 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 13 | @ Kennesaw State | L 34–41 | 77% | −77 |
| Week 14 | vs Louisiana Tech | L 30–42 | 54% | −54 |
| Xbox Bowl | vs Arkansas State | L 28–34 | 30% | −30 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Conference USA teams by luck
- Conference USA: Delaware, Florida International, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Liberty,
Middle Tennessee, 
New Mexico State, 
Sam Houston, Western Kentucky
How many wins does Missouri State have in 2026?
1–3 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.8 wins.
Was Missouri State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −0.8 wins of luck, the 18th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Missouri State’s luckiest season?
2025: 7–5 from play worth 7.0 wins, 0.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 1–3 from play worth 1.8 (−0.8).