luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Xbox Bowl · December 18, 2025

Missouri State vs Arkansas State, Xbox Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Arkansas State beat Missouri State 34–28, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Arkansas State was a 54% favorite.

Final

Missouri State Bears 28
Arkansas State Red Wolves 34

December 18, 2025 · Ford Center At The Star · Closing line: Arkansas State −1.5

Luck index +30 Arkansas State lucky · −30 Missouri State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Missouri State wins 3, Arkansas State wins 7.

  1. 1 MOST 28 ARST 10
  2. 2 MOST 27 ARST 17
  3. 3 MOST 27 ARST 24
  4. 4 MOST 17 ARST 20
  5. 5 MOST 31 ARST 37
  6. 6 MOST 21 ARST 31
  7. 7 MOST 28 ARST 41
  8. 8 MOST 24 ARST 41
  9. 9 MOST 28 ARST 51
  10. 10 MOST 7 ARST 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Missouri State wins 30% of them, Arkansas State 70%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas State by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Missouri State by 17+6.3%
Missouri State by 9–169.1%
Missouri State by 1–814.3%
Level after regulation2.4%
Arkansas State by 1–822.9%
Arkansas State by 9–1616.8%
Arkansas State by 17+28.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to Missouri State: the final margin was Arkansas State by 6, without the luck Arkansas State by 11.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Van Andel, 54 yds made · 49% expected
  • C. Van Andel, 32 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Van Andel, 34 yds missed · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Missouri State 14 for 115 yards, Arkansas State 10 for 110 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:07 False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MOST +0.6 pts
Q1 5:48 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards +4% ARST +1.9 pts
Q2 9:46 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% ARST +1.6 pts
Q2 5:30 False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARST +0.5 pts
Q2 1:52 False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +0.1 pts
Q2 1:38 Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +0.1 pts
Q2 1:29 False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MOST +0.3 pts
Q3 12:21 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Missouri State, 15 yards 0% ARST +0.2 pts
Q3 10:23 Illegal Block on Missouri State, 8 yards +1% ARST +0.5 pts
Q3 9:32 False Start on Missouri State, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +1.4 pts
Q3 7:48 Illegal Block on Arkansas State, 10 yards 0% MOST +0.6 pts
Q3 7:36 Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards 0% ARST +1.5 pts
Q3 5:10 Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yards 0% MOST +2.9 pts
Q3 2:45 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards 0% MOST +0.8 pts
Q4 14:20 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards +1% ARST +1.5 pts
Q4 13:55 Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards 0% ARST +0.4 pts
Q4 13:44 Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yards 0% MOST +1.3 pts
Q4 7:56 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards 0% MOST +0.6 pts
Q4 5:23 Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +0.3 pts
Q4 5:07 Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yards 0% MOST +1.7 pts
Q4 3:29 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards 0% MOST +0.6 pts
Q4 3:07 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arkansas State, 15 yards 0% MOST +1.9 pts
Q4 2:13 Delay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARST +1.2 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +0.4 pts

When it happened

Arkansas State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arkansas State was ahead in it, below while Missouri State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:52 Missouri State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% MOST MOST: Punt
2 Q1 6:56 Missouri State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +3% MOST MOST: Punt
3 Q1 5:48 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% ARST ARST: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:51 Arkansas State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% ARST ARST: Field goal
5 Q2 14:29 Arkansas State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% ARST ARST: Field goal
6 Q2 12:45 Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +2% MOST ARST: Field goal
7 Q2 12:40 C. Van Andel made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 7 of 11 from 45+ before +5% ARST ARST: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:46 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% ARST ARST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Missouri State 4% · Arkansas State 96%

Final margin
Arkansas State by 6
Luck in points
5.3 for Missouri State
Luck-adjusted margin
Arkansas State by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Missouri State 30% · Arkansas State 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Missouri State · Arkansas State

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