New Orleans Bowl · December 23, 2025
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss, New Orleans Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Kentucky beat Southern Miss 27–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Western Kentucky wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Western Kentucky.
Before kickoff Southern Miss was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:09 left): Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to Western Kentucky.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Western Kentucky lucky · −49 Southern Miss
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 5, Southern Miss wins 5.
- 1 WKU 34 USM 13
- 2 WKU 31 USM 16
- 3 WKU 19 USM 10
- 4 WKU 6 USM 0
- 5 WKU 24 USM 22
- 6 WKU 15 USM 17
- 7 WKU 20 USM 26
- 8 WKU 17 USM 27
- 9 WKU 7 USM 23
- 10 WKU 9 USM 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Kentucky wins 51% of them, Southern Miss 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 13.6% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 15.4% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.6% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 19.2% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 15.5% |
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 12.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Cannon, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Cannon, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Wilbanks, 48 yds missed · 56% expected
- C. Wilbanks, 25 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Wilbanks, 29 yds made · 85% expected
- C. Wilbanks, 41 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Western Kentucky 9 for 79 yards, Southern Miss 13 for 110 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:40 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +1% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:47 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WKU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:09 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% WKU +5.4 pts |
| Q1 6:48 | Illegal Block on Western Kentucky, 14 yards | +2% USM +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:12 | Intentional Grounding on Western Kentucky, 0 yards | 0% USM 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:12 | Intentional Grounding on Western Kentucky, 5 yards | +1% USM +0.3 pts |
| Q2 8:16 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +1% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:29 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +2% USM +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:21 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +2% WKU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:50 | Chop Block on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +3% WKU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:03 | False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:52 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 12:40 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +3% USM +1.8 pts |
| Q3 12:37 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +2% WKU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 11:29 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WKU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:12 | Offside on Southern Miss, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.4 pts |
| Q3 8:48 | False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USM +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:01 | Illegal Block on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +2% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:51 | Illegal Block on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +2% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:33 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +5% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:51 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +4% USM +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:54 | Offside on Southern Miss, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Southern Miss’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:47 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +9% USM | WKU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:09 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% WKU | WKU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 11:16 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +12% USM | WKU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 0:10 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +8% WKU | WKU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 11:39 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +12% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 6:26 | Southern Miss fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% USM | USM: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:11 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +8% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:03 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Kentucky 82% · Southern Miss 18%
- Final margin
- Western Kentucky by 11
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for Western Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Kentucky by 6.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Kentucky 51% · Southern Miss 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Western Kentucky · 
Southern Miss
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