IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl · December 16, 2025
Troy vs Jacksonville State, IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Jacksonville State beat Troy 17–13, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Jacksonville State was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:39 left): Return touchdown by Troy, worth 21 points of win probability to Troy.
Final
 Troy Trojans | 13 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Jacksonville State lucky · −35 Troy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Troy wins 4, Jacksonville State wins 6.
- 1 TROY 16 JXST 0
- 2 TROY 20 JXST 10
- 3 TROY 16 JXST 10
- 4 TROY 12 JXST 10
- 5 TROY 13 JXST 15
- 6 TROY 5 JXST 10
- 7 TROY 10 JXST 19
- 8 TROY 9 JXST 21
- 9 TROY 7 JXST 23
- 10 TROY 8 JXST 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Troy wins 35% of them, Jacksonville State 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Troy by 17+ | 4.3% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 11.0% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 26.9% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 18.7% |
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 18.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Renfroe, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- S. Renfroe, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- G. Rippa, 51 yds made · 52% expected
- S. Renfroe, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
Penalties: Troy 3 for 15 yards, Jacksonville State 2 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Substitution on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JXST +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:59 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +7% TROY +1.7 pts |
| Q3 0:50 | Offside on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JXST +4.0 pts |
| Q4 3:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +4% TROY +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Jacksonville State’s chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:39 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedJacksonville State fumbled and Troy recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by TroySpecial teams | +21% TROY | JXST: End of half |
| 2 | Q2 8:30 | Troy converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expected | +8% TROY | TROY: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 15:00 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +5% TROY | JXST: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 4:10 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedJacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedS. Renfroe missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 3 of 9 from 45+ beforeUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Jacksonville State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% JXST | JXST: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 15:00 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedJacksonville State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedJacksonville State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +15% JXST | JXST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:56 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% JXST | TROY: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 5:34 | Troy was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedJacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +10% JXST | TROY: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 3:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Jacksonville State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TROY | TROY: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Troy 54% · Jacksonville State 46%
- Final margin
- Jacksonville State by 4
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Jacksonville State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Troy by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Troy 35% · Jacksonville State 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Troy · 
Jacksonville State
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