Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl · December 30, 2025
Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech, Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana Tech beat Coastal Carolina 23–14, but the replays lean toward Coastal Carolina: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 26 points of win probability to Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana Tech won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Coastal Carolina it would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 39%. The numbers
Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:14 left): Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to Coastal Carolina.
Final
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 14 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Louisiana Tech very lucky · −61 Coastal Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Coastal Carolina wins 6, Louisiana Tech wins 4.
- 1 CCU 38 LT 7
- 2 CCU 20 LT 0
- 3 CCU 34 LT 20
- 4 CCU 31 LT 20
- 5 CCU 24 LT 17
- 6 CCU 6 LT 3
- 7 CCU 17 LT 20
- 8 CCU 10 LT 17
- 9 CCU 14 LT 27
- 10 CCU 17 LT 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Louisiana Tech won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Coastal Carolina it would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 39%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for Louisiana Tech: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina offenseEPA per play gained | −0.21 | +0.10 | worse by 0.31 |
| Coastal Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.09 | better by 0.13 |
| Louisiana Tech offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | −0.00 | worse by 0.04 |
| Louisiana Tech defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.21 | −0.01 | better by 0.20 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Coastal Carolina wins 61% of them, Louisiana Tech 39%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana Tech by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 21.7% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 17.8% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 8.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Afrookhteh, 29 yds missed · 89% expected
- K. Kent, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- J. Hoyet Chance, 51 yds made · 51% expected
- K. Afrookhteh, 22 yds blocked · 94% expected
- K. Kent, 35 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Coastal Carolina 15 for 129 yards, Louisiana Tech 10 for 99 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 12:50 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:30 | Personal Foul on Coastal Carolina, 14 yards | +3% LT +1.6 pts |
| Q1 12:00 | Delay of Game on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CCU +1.8 pts |
| Q1 10:58 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:38 | Illegal Block on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +1% LT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:50 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +4% CCU +2.0 pts |
| Q1 1:39 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:12 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +3% LT +1.4 pts |
| Q1 1:00 | Personal Foul on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +4% LT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:58 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:57 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +3% LT +1.2 pts |
| Q2 10:47 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +2% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:01 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisiana Tech, 14 yards | +2% CCU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:27 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LT +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:37 | Illegal Block on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +2% LT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:08 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +2% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:45 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +8% CCU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 11:45 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:20 | Intentional Grounding on Coastal Carolina, 0 yards | 0% LT 0.0 pts |
| Q4 11:14 | Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +15% CCU +3.2 pts |
| Q4 9:32 | Unnecessary Roughness on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +4% LT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:13 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +2% LT +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana Tech’s chance of winning
As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:50 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +7% LT | LT: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 11:36 | Coastal Carolina fumbled and Louisiana Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% LT | CCU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 9:28 | Louisiana Tech fumbled and Coastal Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% CCU | LT: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 6:23 | K. Afrookhteh had a 22-yard field goal blockedKicks · 93% expected for him | +13% LT | CCU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 5:45 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 12:33 | Louisiana Tech fumbled and Coastal Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% CCU | LT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 11:14 | Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +15% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 4:10 | Louisiana Tech fumbled and Coastal Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% CCU | LT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Coastal Carolina 25% · Louisiana Tech 75%
- Final margin
- Louisiana Tech by 9
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for Louisiana Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 5.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Coastal Carolina 61% · Louisiana Tech 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Coastal Carolina · 
Louisiana Tech
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