Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: luck and expected wins
Louisiana Tech is 1–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.2 wins. Luck cost 0.2: the 50th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Louisiana Tech wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Northwestern State | W 80–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ LSU | L 14–45 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ Baylor | L 19–36 | 17% | −17 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Louisiana Tech win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Army |  Army by 5.7 | 36% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Louisiana |  Louisiana Tech by 0.2 | 50% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at UL Monroe | Louisiana Tech by 15.1 | 82% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Old Dominion | Louisiana Tech by 4.4 | 61% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at South Alabama |  South Alabama by 2.2 | 45% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Troy |  Troy by 1.1 | 47% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Southern Miss | Louisiana Tech by 9.0 | 70% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Arkansas State | Louisiana Tech by 5.9 | 64% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Georgia Southern |  Georgia Southern by 1.2 | 47% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Louisiana Tech’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | +0.03 | +9.6 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Louisiana Tech takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl | vs Coastal Carolina | W 23–14 | 39% | +61 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Liberty | W 34–28 | 45% | +55 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Southern Miss | W 30–20 | 45% | +55 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Missouri State | W 42–30 | 46% | +54 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ UTEP | W 30–11 | 47% | +53 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Louisiana Tech would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Delaware | L 24–25 | 75% | −75 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Western Kentucky | L 27–28 | 53% | −53 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Baylor | L 19–36 | 17% | −17 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Kennesaw State | L 7–35 | 8% | −8 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ LSU | L 7–23 | 5% | −5 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–5 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 1–2 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs SE Louisiana | W 24–0 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 2 | @ LSU | L 7–23 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 3 | vs New Mexico State | W 49–14 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 4 | vs Southern Miss | W 30–20 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 5 | @ UTEP | W 30–11 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 7 | @ Kennesaw State | L 7–35 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 9 | vs Western Kentucky | L 27–28 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 10 | vs Sam Houston | W 55–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 11 | @ Delaware | L 24–25 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 12 | @ Washington State | L 3–28 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 13 | vs Liberty | W 34–28 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 14 | @ Missouri State | W 42–30 | 46% | +54 |
| Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl | vs Coastal Carolina | W 23–14 | 39% | +61 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Sun Belt teams by luck
- Sun Belt:
App State, 
Arkansas State, 
Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, 
Georgia State, 
James Madison, 
Louisiana, 
Marshall, 
Old Dominion, South Alabama, 
Southern Miss, Troy, 
UL Monroe
How many wins does Louisiana Tech have in 2026?
1–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.2 wins.
Was Louisiana Tech lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.2 wins of luck, the 50th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Louisiana Tech’s luckiest season?
2025: 7–5 from play worth 6.1 wins, +0.9 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 1–2 from play worth 1.2 (−0.2).