luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Louisiana Tech at UTEP, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Louisiana Tech beat UTEP 30–11, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Louisiana Tech wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Louisiana Tech.

Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:22 left): Return touchdown by Louisiana Tech, worth 22 points of win probability to Louisiana Tech.

Final

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 30
UTEP Miners 11

September 27, 2025 · Sun Bowl · Closing line: Louisiana Tech −3.5

Luck index +53 Louisiana Tech lucky · −53 UTEP

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Louisiana Tech wins 5, UTEP wins 5.

  1. 1 LT 20 UTEP 0
  2. 2 LT 13 UTEP 0
  3. 3 LT 16 UTEP 7
  4. 4 LT 14 UTEP 9
  5. 5 LT 14 UTEP 12
  6. 6 LT 13 UTEP 16
  7. 7 LT 7 UTEP 13
  8. 8 LT 7 UTEP 15
  9. 9 LT 17 UTEP 29
  10. 10 LT 10 UTEP 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Louisiana Tech wins 47% of them, UTEP 53%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana Tech by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Louisiana Tech by 17+9.3%
Louisiana Tech by 9–1617.0%
Louisiana Tech by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation3.3%
UTEP by 1–825.5%
UTEP by 9–1615.2%
UTEP by 17+10.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to Louisiana Tech: the final margin was Louisiana Tech by 19, without the luck Louisiana Tech by 14.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Arreola, 47 yds blocked · 58% expected
  • D. Henderson, 37 yds made · 77% expected
  • T. Cragun, 38 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Louisiana Tech 2 for 15 yards, UTEP 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:56 Offside on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UTEP +0.8 pts
Q1 9:55 Pass Interference on UTEP, 11 yards +5% LT +2.6 pts
Q1 6:59 Pass Interference on UTEP, 14 yards +2% LT +1.0 pts
Q3 8:00 Holding on UTEP, 10 yards +4% LT +1.7 pts
Q4 5:21 Face Mask on UTEP, 5 yards 0% LT +1.4 pts
Q4 2:34 Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards 0% UTEP +1.2 pts
Q4 0:43 Holding on UTEP, 10 yards 0% LT +0.7 pts

When it happened

UTEP’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UTEP was ahead in it, below while Louisiana Tech was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:59 UTEP converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% UTEP UTEP: Turnover
2 Q1 12:22 UTEP converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% UTEP UTEP: Turnover
3 Q1 11:47 UTEP converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% UTEP UTEP: Turnover
4 Q1 9:55 Pass Interference on UTEP, 11 yardsJudgment calls +5% LT LT: Touchdown
5 Q3 12:41 Louisiana Tech was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedLouisiana Tech fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% UTEP LT: Punt
6 Q3 8:00 Holding on UTEP, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% LT LT: Field goal
7 Q4 10:30 Louisiana Tech fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% LT LT: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:22 Return touchdown by Louisiana TechSpecial teams +22% LT LT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Louisiana Tech 99% · UTEP 1%

Final margin
Louisiana Tech by 19
Luck in points
4.3 for Louisiana Tech
Luck-adjusted margin
Louisiana Tech by 14.7
Replay with same day's form
Louisiana Tech 47% · UTEP 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Louisiana Tech · UTEP

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