Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Western Kentucky at Missouri State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Kentucky beat Missouri State 27–22, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Western Kentucky wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Western Kentucky.
Before kickoff Western Kentucky was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:13 left): Missouri State converted 3rd & 9, worth 18 points of win probability to Missouri State.
Final
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 27 |
|---|---|
 Missouri State Bears | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Western Kentucky lucky · −45 Missouri State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 6, Missouri State wins 4.
- 1 WKU 41 MOST 10
- 2 WKU 31 MOST 10
- 3 WKU 44 MOST 28
- 4 WKU 31 MOST 21
- 5 WKU 40 MOST 34
- 6 WKU 30 MOST 28
- 7 WKU 28 MOST 31
- 8 WKU 34 MOST 41
- 9 WKU 27 MOST 41
- 10 WKU 21 MOST 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Kentucky wins 55% of them, Missouri State 45%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 17.6% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 10.3% |
| Missouri State by 17+ | 11.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Y. Obeid, 49 yds made · 57% expected
- J. Cannon, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- Y. Obeid, 22 yds made · 95% expected
- Y. Obeid, 19 yds made · 96% expected
- Y. Obeid, 43 yds missed · 69% expected
- J. Cannon, 19 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Western Kentucky 9 for 94 yards, Missouri State 8 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:04 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WKU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 7:45 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:45 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WKU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:55 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +4% MOST +1.8 pts |
| Q1 5:55 | Personal Foul on Western Kentucky, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MOST +2.7 pts |
| Q1 5:55 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +8% WKU +3.6 pts |
| Q2 12:31 | Roughing the Passer on Missouri State, 15 yards | +3% WKU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:25 | Personal Foul on Western Kentucky, 12 yards | +2% MOST +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:25 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 3:25 | False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% WKU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +4% MOST +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:02 | Offside on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MOST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +2% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:16 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards | +3% WKU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 0:34 | Roughing the Passer on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +5% MOST +2.0 pts |
| Q4 10:37 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% MOST +2.2 pts |
| Q4 8:43 | Personal Foul on Western Kentucky, 7 yards | +3% MOST +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Missouri State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:45 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedHolding on Missouri State, 10 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% WKU | MOST: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:55 | Y. Obeid made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ before | +4% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 8:43 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedJ. Cannon made a 26-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +7% WKU | MOST: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:27 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedHolding on Western Kentucky, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% MOST | WKU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 12:16 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedWestern Kentucky converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedWestern Kentucky converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedPass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +13% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 3:11 | Missouri State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +10% WKU | MOST: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 0:34 | Roughing the Passer on Western Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 4:13 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedWestern Kentucky converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedMissouri State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +18% MOST | MOST: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Kentucky 32% · Missouri State 68%
- Final margin
- Western Kentucky by 5
- Luck in points
- 8.3 for Western Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri State by 3.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Kentucky 55% · Missouri State 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Western Kentucky · 
Missouri State
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