Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Southern Miss beat Jacksonville State 42–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Southern Miss wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Jacksonville State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Southern Miss it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff Southern Miss was a 61% favorite.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Southern Miss about even · −1 Jacksonville State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jacksonville State wins 0, Southern Miss wins 10.
- 1 JXST 21 USM 31
- 2 JXST 24 USM 42
- 3 JXST 6 USM 28
- 4 JXST 14 USM 40
- 5 JXST 16 USM 45
- 6 JXST 3 USM 37
- 7 JXST 3 USM 41
- 8 JXST 7 USM 49
- 9 JXST 10 USM 58
- 10 JXST 6 USM 62
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Jacksonville State
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Southern Miss it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for Jacksonville State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.10 | worse by 0.21 |
| Jacksonville State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.09 | worse by 0.10 |
| Southern Miss offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.01 | better by 0.17 |
| Southern Miss defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | +0.14 | better by 0.25 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jacksonville State wins 1% of them, Southern Miss 99%. The line is what actually happened: Southern Miss by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 91.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Jacksonville State 6 for 53 yards, Southern Miss 6 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:38 | Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 13 yards | +3% USM +1.7 pts |
| Q1 6:31 | Illegal Block on Jacksonville State, 10 yards | +1% USM +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:56 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +2% JXST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:56 | Personal Foul on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +2% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:51 | Illegal Substitution on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USM +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:19 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:05 | Delay of Game on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:32 | Delay of Game on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JXST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:49 | Illegal Snap on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JXST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:22 | False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +1.2 pts |
| Q4 11:02 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | 0% JXST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:23 | Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 1 yard | 0% JXST 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Southern Miss’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:01 | Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% JXST | USM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:45 | Jacksonville State fumbled and Southern Miss recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% USM | JXST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:38 | Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +3% USM | USM: End of half |
| 4 | Q1 10:10 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% JXST | JXST: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 8:02 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% USM | JXST: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:14 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% JXST | JXST: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 9:57 | Southern Miss fumbled and Jacksonville State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% JXST | USM: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 7:56 | Personal Foul on Jacksonville State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% USM | USM: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jacksonville State 0% · Southern Miss 100%
- Final margin
- Southern Miss by 17
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for Jacksonville State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southern Miss by 19.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Jacksonville State 1% · Southern Miss 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Jacksonville State · 
Southern Miss
More from Week 5 2025
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at UTEP LT 30–11 · replay 47% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Missouri State WKU 27–22 · replay 55% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State KENN 24–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- South Alabama at North Texas UNT 36–22 · replay 72% for the winner
- Arkansas State at UL Monroe ULM 28–16 · replay 97% for the winner
- New Mexico State at New Mexico UNM 38–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- App State at Boise State BOIS 47–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Liberty at Old Dominion ODU 21–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at James Madison JMU 35–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner