Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Liberty at Old Dominion, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Old Dominion beat Liberty 21–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Old Dominion wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Old Dominion was an 83% favorite.
Final
 Liberty Flames | 7 |
|---|---|
 Old Dominion Monarchs | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Old Dominion about even · 0 Liberty
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liberty wins 0, Old Dominion wins 10.
- 1 LIB 7 ODU 20
- 2 LIB 21 ODU 41
- 3 LIB 3 ODU 27
- 4 LIB 6 ODU 34
- 5 LIB 6 ODU 38
- 6 LIB 2 ODU 37
- 7 LIB 6 ODU 45
- 8 LIB 0 ODU 42
- 9 LIB 7 ODU 55
- 10 LIB 0 ODU 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Liberty wins 0% of them, Old Dominion 100%. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liberty by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Old Dominion by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Old Dominion by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Old Dominion by 17+ | 96.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Billingsley, 46 yds missed · 60% expected
- R. Callaghan, 52 yds missed · 51% expected
- R. Callaghan, 32 yds missed · 85% expected
Penalties: Liberty 10 for 70 yards, Old Dominion 4 for 36 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:57 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +2% ODU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 7:57 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ODU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:57 | Illegal Shift on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ODU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 1:45 | Targeting on Liberty, 15 yards | +2% ODU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:34 | Offside on Liberty, 2 yards · pre-snap | +6% LIB +6.4 pts |
| Q2 7:34 | Delay of Game on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +0.1 pts |
| Q2 5:19 | Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 11 yards | 0% LIB +2.4 pts |
| Q2 3:54 | Delay of Game on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:18 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:03 | Illegal Block on Old Dominion, 9 yards | 0% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:03 | Ineligible Downfield on Old Dominion, 5 yards | +3% LIB +1.9 pts |
| Q3 5:43 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ODU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 10:09 | Intentional Grounding on Old Dominion, 11 yards | 0% LIB +2.0 pts |
| Q4 10:09 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 13 yards | 0% LIB +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Old Dominion’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:50 | Liberty converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +3% LIB | LIB: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:56 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedJ. Billingsley missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +3% ODU | ODU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 13:58 | Liberty fumbled and Old Dominion recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% ODU | LIB: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 7:34 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedOffside on Liberty, 2 yardsPre-snap flagsDelay of Game on Liberty, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% LIB | LIB: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 9:03 | Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedIllegal Block on Old Dominion, 9 yardsJudgment callsIneligible Downfield on Old Dominion, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +5% LIB | ODU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 1:55 | R. Callaghan missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +4% LIB | ODU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 15:00 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% ODU | LIB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 13:57 | Liberty was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +5% ODU | LIB: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liberty 2% · Old Dominion 98%
- Final margin
- Old Dominion by 14
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for Liberty
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Old Dominion by 17.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Liberty 0% · Old Dominion 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Liberty · 
Old Dominion
More from Week 5 2025
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- Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State KENN 24–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- South Alabama at North Texas UNT 36–22 · replay 72% for the winner
- Arkansas State at UL Monroe ULM 28–16 · replay 97% for the winner
- New Mexico State at New Mexico UNM 38–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- App State at Boise State BOIS 47–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Southern Miss USM 42–25 · replay 99% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at James Madison JMU 35–10 · replay 100% for the winner
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- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner