Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress

Liberty Flames: luck and expected wins

Liberty is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 45th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often Liberty wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ James Madison	L 13–20	11%	−11
Week 2	vs Gardner-Webb	W 24–23	63%	+37
Week 3	vs Ball State	W 51–15	100%	0
Week 4	@ Coastal Carolina	W 34–17	96%	+4

Wk 1 −11 @ JMU

Wk 2 +37 vs GWEB

Wk 3 0 vs BALL

Wk 4 +4 @ CCU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Liberty win chance
Week 5 · Oct 2	at Delaware	Liberty by 4.6	62%
Week 6 · Oct 8	vs Sam Houston	Liberty by 14.0	81%
Week 8 · Oct 22	at Kennesaw State	Liberty by 3.7	59%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Florida International	Liberty by 11.4	75%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at New Mexico State	Liberty by 10.3	73%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Middle Tennessee	Liberty by 15.6	82%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Western Kentucky	Liberty by 14.1	80%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Missouri State	Liberty by 7.2	66%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Liberty’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.03	−5.6
Fumble bounces	−0.03	+0.1
Kicks	−0.07	+1.1
Pre-snap flags	−0.17	−2.4

Luckiest wins

Wins Liberty takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 8	vs New Mexico State	W 30–27	42%	+58
2026 Week 2	vs Gardner-Webb	W 24–23	63%	+37
2025 Week 1	vs Maine	W 28–7	75%	+25
2025 Week 7	@ UTEP	W 19–8	95%	+5
2026 Week 4	@ Coastal Carolina	W 34–17	96%	+4

Unluckiest losses

Losses Liberty would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 3	@ Bowling Green	L 13–23	67%	−67
2025 Week 13	@ Louisiana Tech	L 28–34	55%	−55
2025 Week 14	vs Kennesaw State	L 42–48	54%	−54
2025 Week 2	@ Jacksonville State	L 24–34	40%	−40
2025 Week 12	@ Florida International	L 27–34	35%	−35

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	5.9	−1.9	1–4	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Maine	W 28–7	75%	+25
Week 2	@ Jacksonville State	L 24–34	40%	−40
Week 3	@ Bowling Green	L 13–23	67%	−67
Week 4	vs James Madison	L 13–31	2%	−2
Week 5	@ Old Dominion	L 7–21	0%	0
Week 7	@ UTEP	W 19–8	95%	+5
Week 8	vs New Mexico State	W 30–27	42%	+58
Week 10	vs Delaware	W 59–30	99%	+1
Week 11	vs Missouri State	L 17–21	24%	−24
Week 12	@ Florida International	L 27–34	35%	−35
Week 13	@ Louisiana Tech	L 28–34	55%	−55
Week 14	vs Kennesaw State	L 42–48	54%	−54