Week 4 2026 · September 24, 2026
Liberty at Coastal Carolina, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Liberty beat Coastal Carolina 34–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Liberty wins 10 of 10. Coastal Carolina had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Coastal Carolina.
An off day for Coastal Carolina: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Liberty it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff Liberty was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:58 left): Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to Coastal Carolina.
Final
 Liberty Flames | 34 |
|---|---|
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Liberty about even · −4 Coastal Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liberty wins 10, Coastal Carolina wins 0.
- 1 LIB 55 CCU 7
- 2 LIB 51 CCU 13
- 3 LIB 48 CCU 14
- 4 LIB 44 CCU 14
- 5 LIB 35 CCU 9
- 6 LIB 30 CCU 7
- 7 LIB 26 CCU 7
- 8 LIB 24 CCU 9
- 9 LIB 27 CCU 17
- 10 LIB 28 CCU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Coastal Carolina
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Liberty it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for Coastal Carolina: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty offenseEPA per play gained | +0.53 | +0.09 | better by 0.43 |
| Liberty defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.08 | worse by 0.07 |
| Coastal Carolina offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.06 | better by 0.08 |
| Coastal Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.53 | +0.07 | worse by 0.45 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Liberty wins 96% of them, Coastal Carolina 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Liberty by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liberty by 17+ | 75.0% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 12.3% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 2.3% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Reeves, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- N. Cavanillas Alti, 41 yds made · 71% expected
- C. Reeves, 24 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Liberty 9 for 90 yards, Coastal Carolina 15 for 117 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:35 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +0.8 pts |
| Q1 8:53 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +4% CCU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 4:26 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +3% LIB +1.3 pts |
| Q1 3:28 | Ineligible Downfield on Liberty, 5 yards | +2% CCU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:22 | Delay of Game on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:01 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:02 | Delay of Game on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:58 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +2% LIB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:54 | Roughing the Passer on Coastal Carolina, 12 yards | +2% LIB +1.5 pts |
| Q2 6:42 | Ineligible Downfield on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards | +3% LIB +1.3 pts |
| Q2 5:26 | Delay of Game on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LIB +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:51 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CCU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:30 | Face Mask on Liberty, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% CCU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +2% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:26 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +5% LIB +1.7 pts |
| Q3 10:38 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +5% LIB +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Liberty, 15 yards | 0% CCU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:08 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +5% CCU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 12:41 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +4% CCU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 11:06 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +5% LIB +2.0 pts |
| Q4 10:01 | Illegal Forward Pass on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards | +1% LIB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:02 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LIB +2.1 pts |
| Q4 2:39 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | 0% LIB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:59 | Intentional Grounding on Coastal Carolina, 0 yards | 0% LIB 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Coastal Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:57 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +5% CCU | CCU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 6:23 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% CCU | CCU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:24 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +9% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 12:26 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 10:38 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Coastal Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 3:58 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +9% CCU | CCU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 13:08 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:06 | Liberty converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +5% LIB | LIB: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liberty 100% · Coastal Carolina 0%
- Final margin
- Liberty by 17
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for Coastal Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liberty by 20.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Liberty 96% · Coastal Carolina 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Liberty · 
Coastal Carolina
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