Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee 23–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Jacksonville State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Jacksonville State was a 68% favorite.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Jacksonville State about even · −2 Middle Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Middle Tennessee wins 0, Jacksonville State wins 10.
- 1 MTSU 21 JXST 27
- 2 MTSU 14 JXST 24
- 3 MTSU 28 JXST 42
- 4 MTSU 35 JXST 55
- 5 MTSU 20 JXST 42
- 6 MTSU 16 JXST 42
- 7 MTSU 20 JXST 49
- 8 MTSU 10 JXST 44
- 9 MTSU 10 JXST 48
- 10 MTSU 10 JXST 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Middle Tennessee wins 2% of them, Jacksonville State 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 10.9% |
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 80.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Rippa, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- G. Rippa, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- G. Rippa, 29 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Middle Tennessee 7 for 69 yards, Jacksonville State 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:30 | Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 10 yards | +2% MTSU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 7:27 | Ineligible Downfield on Jacksonville State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +7% MTSU +3.8 pts |
| Q1 7:27 | Offside on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:14 | Face Mask on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +3% MTSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:35 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% JXST +0.1 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +1% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +1% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +2% JXST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:48 | Intentional Grounding on Middle Tennessee, 14 yards | +1% JXST +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Jacksonville State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:27 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedIneligible Downfield on Jacksonville State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsOffside on Middle Tennessee, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% MTSU | JXST: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:14 | Middle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedG. Rippa made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for himFace Mask on Jacksonville State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% MTSU | MTSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:27 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 13:19 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 12:24 | Middle Tennessee fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:47 | Middle Tennessee converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +6% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 10:11 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedMiddle Tennessee’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% JXST | JXST: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 13:29 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% MTSU | MTSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Middle Tennessee 2% · Jacksonville State 98%
- Final margin
- Jacksonville State by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Middle Tennessee
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jacksonville State by 11.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Middle Tennessee 2% · Jacksonville State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Middle Tennessee · 
Jacksonville State
More from Week 4 2026
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Long Island University at Florida International FIU 20–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- New Mexico at New Mexico State UNM 42–18 · replay 95% for the winner
- Liberty at Coastal Carolina LIB 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Missouri State at SMU SMU 34–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky WKU 52–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Texas Tech TTU 49–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Virginia UVA 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner