Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
New Mexico at New Mexico State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
New Mexico beat New Mexico State 42–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, New Mexico wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff New Mexico was a 77% favorite.
Final
 New Mexico Lobos | 42 |
|---|---|
 New Mexico State Aggies | 18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 New Mexico about even · −6 New Mexico State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico wins 9, New Mexico State wins 1.
- 1 UNM 51 NMSU 10
- 2 UNM 48 NMSU 14
- 3 UNM 36 NMSU 7
- 4 UNM 38 NMSU 14
- 5 UNM 27 NMSU 7
- 6 UNM 20 NMSU 3
- 7 UNM 31 NMSU 17
- 8 UNM 31 NMSU 21
- 9 UNM 28 NMSU 24
- 10 UNM 17 NMSU 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico wins 94% of them, New Mexico State 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico by 17+ | 69.4% |
| New Mexico by 9–16 | 14.8% |
| New Mexico by 1–8 | 9.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 3.4% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Francone, 27 yds missed · 89% expected
- I. Uvaydov, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- G. Glasgow, 29 yds missed · 89% expected
Penalties: New Mexico 7 for 55 yards, New Mexico State 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico State, 15 yards | +2% UNM +2.2 pts |
| Q1 0:32 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:04 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:59 | Encroachment on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:56 | Pass Interference on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% NMSU +3.9 pts |
| Q2 1:56 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | 0% NMSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:28 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNM +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Ineligible Downfield on New Mexico, 5 yards | +1% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:25 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | 0% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:36 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +1.5 pts |
| Q4 10:08 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico State, 15 yards | 0% UNM +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% NMSU +6.2 pts |
When it happened
New Mexico State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:52 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:24 | K. Francone missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +5% UNM | NMSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 13:50 | New Mexico State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% NMSU | NMSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:56 | Pass Interference on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% NMSU | NMSU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 3:04 | G. Glasgow missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +3% NMSU | UNM: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 2:06 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +2% NMSU | NMSU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 11:24 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +2% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico 100% · New Mexico State 0%
- Final margin
- New Mexico by 24
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for New Mexico
- Luck-adjusted margin
- New Mexico by 18.8
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico 94% · New Mexico State 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
New Mexico · 
New Mexico State
More from Week 4 2026
- Air Force at Nevada AF 36–33 · replay 46% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- UNLV at Akron UNLV 38–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Long Island University at Florida International FIU 20–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Wyoming WYO 27–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Liberty at Coastal Carolina LIB 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State JXST 23–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Missouri State at SMU SMU 34–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky WKU 52–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oregon State at UTEP ORST 33–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Texas Tech TTU 49–14 · replay 100% for the winner