luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Oregon State at UTEP, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Oregon State beat UTEP 33–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Oregon State was a 77% favorite.

Final

Oregon State Beavers 33
UTEP Miners 7

September 26, 2026 · Sun Bowl · Closing line: Oregon State −11.5

Luck index 0 Oregon State about even · 0 UTEP

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oregon State wins 10, UTEP wins 0.

  1. 1 ORST 52 UTEP 0
  2. 2 ORST 48 UTEP 3
  3. 3 ORST 41 UTEP 0
  4. 4 ORST 38 UTEP 0
  5. 5 ORST 49 UTEP 14
  6. 6 ORST 38 UTEP 7
  7. 7 ORST 42 UTEP 14
  8. 8 ORST 24 UTEP 0
  9. 9 ORST 23 UTEP 3
  10. 10 ORST 21 UTEP 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oregon State wins 100% of them, UTEP 0%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon State by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oregon State by 17+94.5%
Oregon State by 9–163.7%
Oregon State by 1–81.6%
Level after regulation0.1%
UTEP by 1–80.1%
UTEP by 9–160.0%
UTEP by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to Oregon State: the final margin was Oregon State by 26, without the luck Oregon State by 22.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Ojeda, 37 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Ojeda, 35 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Oregon State 11 for 120 yards, UTEP 10 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:25 Personal Foul on UTEP, 15 yards +2% ORST +1.6 pts
Q1 14:13 False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTEP +0.5 pts
Q1 12:31 Offside on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTEP +0.1 pts
Q1 11:35 Holding on UTEP, 9 yards +1% ORST +0.9 pts
Q1 6:50 False Start on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTEP +0.7 pts
Q1 5:19 Offside on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORST +0.9 pts
Q1 1:59 Holding on UTEP, 10 yards 0% ORST +0.6 pts
Q1 0:14 Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards 0% UTEP +0.6 pts
Q2 12:12 Offside on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTEP +1.0 pts
Q2 5:28 Illegal Shift on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTEP +0.9 pts
Q2 2:47 False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTEP +0.9 pts
Q2 2:18 Ineligible Downfield on UTEP, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% ORST +1.0 pts
Q2 1:52 Personal Foul on Oregon State, 15 yards 0% UTEP +0.9 pts
Q2 1:19 Personal Foul on Oregon State, 15 yards +1% UTEP +1.6 pts
Q2 0:14 Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards 0% UTEP +0.7 pts
Q3 11:35 Personal Foul on Oregon State, 15 yards +1% UTEP +1.6 pts
Q3 6:16 Personal Foul on UTEP, 15 yards +1% ORST +1.6 pts
Q3 4:02 Pass Interference on UTEP, 10 yards 0% ORST +1.5 pts
Q4 14:08 Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards 0% UTEP +2.0 pts
Q4 12:18 Illegal Block on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ORST +1.9 pts
Q4 5:58 Face Mask on Oregon State, 15 yards 0% UTEP +1.6 pts

When it happened

UTEP’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UTEP was ahead in it, below while Oregon State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:25 Personal Foul on UTEP, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% ORST ORST: Touchdown
2 Q1 13:23 Oregon State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% ORST ORST: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:35 Holding on UTEP, 9 yardsJudgment calls +1% ORST ORST: Field goal
4 Q1 7:26 Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +1% UTEP ORST: Field goal
5 Q1 5:52 UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +1% ORST UTEP: Punt
6 Q2 8:16 Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +1% UTEP ORST: Field goal
7 Q3 11:35 Personal Foul on Oregon State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% UTEP UTEP: Touchdown
8 Q3 6:16 Personal Foul on UTEP, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% ORST ORST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oregon State 100% · UTEP 0%

Final margin
Oregon State by 26
Luck in points
3.9 for Oregon State
Luck-adjusted margin
Oregon State by 22.1
Replay with same day's form
Oregon State 100% · UTEP 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Oregon State · UTEP

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