luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · December 19, 2025–January 19, 2026

College Football Playoff 2025–26: upsets, and who deserved to win

5 upsets in College Football Playoff 2025–26. The biggest: Miami beat Ohio State 24–14 as 31% underdogs, and got lucky. 3 of 11 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Alabama beat Oklahoma 34–24 in a game it wins 18% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

College Football Playoff 2025–26 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Miami 24–14 vs Ohio State · CFP quarterfinal, Cotton Bowl 31% 30% Lucky
Ole Miss 39–34 vs Georgia · CFP quarterfinal, Sugar Bowl 35% 71% Deserved
Miami 10–3 @ Texas A&M · CFP first round 42% 42% Coin flip
Alabama 34–24 @ Oklahoma · CFP first round 46% 18% Lucky
Oregon 23–0 vs Texas Tech · CFP quarterfinal, Orange Bowl 46% 56% Coin flip

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Luck ranking, college football playoff

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Alabama W 34–24 @ Oklahoma 18% +82
2 Indiana W 27–21 vs Miami 22% +78
3 Miami W 24–14 vs Ohio State 30% +70
4 Miami W 10–3 @ Texas A&M 42% +58
5 Oregon W 23–0 vs Texas Tech 56% +44
6 Indiana W 56–22 vs Oregon 61% +39
7 Miami W 31–27 vs Ole Miss 63% +37
8 Ole Miss W 39–34 vs Georgia 71% +29
9 Ole Miss W 41–10 vs Tulane 98% +2
10 Oregon W 51–34 vs James Madison 99% +1
11 Indiana W 38–3 vs Alabama 100% 0
12 Alabama L 3–38 vs Indiana 0% 0
13 James Madison L 34–51 @ Oregon 1% −1
14 Tulane L 10–41 @ Ole Miss 2% −2
15 Georgia L 34–39 vs Ole Miss 29% −29
16 Ole Miss L 27–31 vs Miami 37% −37
17 Oregon L 22–56 vs Indiana 39% −39
18 Texas Tech L 0–23 vs Oregon 44% −44
19 Texas A&M L 3–10 vs Miami 58% −58
20 Ohio State L 14–24 vs Miami 70% −70
21 Miami L 21–27 vs Indiana 78% −78
22 Oklahoma L 24–34 vs Alabama 82% −82