SEC · 2026 season, in progress
Georgia Bulldogs: luck and expected wins
Georgia is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 69th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Georgia wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Tennessee State | W 63–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Western Kentucky | W 70–20 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | @ Arkansas | W 45–17 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 4 | vs Oklahoma | W 41–13 | 96% | +4 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Georgia win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Vanderbilt |  Georgia by 18.9 | 88% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Alabama |  Alabama by 3.4 | 42% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Auburn | Georgia by 17.0 | 85% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Florida | Georgia by 5.7 | 64% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Ole Miss | Georgia by 7.7 | 68% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Missouri | Georgia by 18.3 | 86% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at South Carolina | Georgia by 14.3 | 80% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Georgia Tech | Georgia by 26.9 | 94% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Georgia’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.02 | +6.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Georgia takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 3 | @ Tennessee | W 44–41 | 20% | +80 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Georgia Tech | W 16–9 | 35% | +65 |
| 2025 Week 10 | vs Florida | W 24–20 | 66% | +34 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Auburn | W 20–10 | 71% | +29 |
| 2025 Week 15 | vs Alabama | W 28–7 | 82% | +19 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Georgia would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Alabama | L 21–24 | 46% | −46 |
| 2026 CFP quarterfinal, Sugar Bowl | vs Ole Miss | L 34–39 | 29% | −29 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12–1 | 10.0 | +2.0 | 4–1 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Marshall | W 45–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Austin Peay | W 28–6 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | @ Tennessee | W 44–41 | 20% | +80 |
| Week 5 | vs Alabama | L 21–24 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 6 | vs Kentucky | W 35–14 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 7 | @ Auburn | W 20–10 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 8 | vs Ole Miss | W 43–35 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 10 | vs Florida | W 24–20 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 11 | @ Mississippi State | W 41–21 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 12 | vs Texas | W 35–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 13 | vs Charlotte | W 35–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 14 | vs Georgia Tech | W 16–9 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 15 | vs Alabama | W 28–7 | 82% | +19 |
| CFP quarterfinal, Sugar Bowl | vs Ole Miss | L 34–39 | 29% | −29 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- SEC teams by luck
- SEC: Alabama,
Arkansas, 
Auburn, 
Florida, 
Kentucky, 
LSU, 
Mississippi State, 
Missouri, 
Oklahoma, 
Ole Miss, 
South Carolina, 
Tennessee, 
Texas, 
Texas A&M, 
Vanderbilt
How many wins does Georgia have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.9 wins.
Was Georgia lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.1 wins of luck, the 69th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Georgia’s luckiest season?
2025: 12–1 from play worth 10.0 wins, +2.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 4–0 from play worth 3.9 (+0.1).