luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Alabama at Georgia, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Alabama beat Georgia 24–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Alabama wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Alabama.

Before kickoff Georgia was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:43 left): Alabama was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to Georgia.

Final

Alabama Crimson Tide 24
Georgia Bulldogs 21

September 27, 2025 · Sanford Stadium · Closing line: Georgia −2.5

Luck index +46 Alabama lucky · −46 Georgia

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Alabama wins 5, Georgia wins 5.

  1. 1 ALA 40 UGA 14
  2. 2 ALA 28 UGA 10
  3. 3 ALA 33 UGA 21
  4. 4 ALA 20 UGA 13
  5. 5 ALA 17 UGA 14
  6. 6 ALA 20 UGA 22
  7. 7 ALA 27 UGA 31
  8. 8 ALA 17 UGA 26
  9. 9 ALA 10 UGA 23
  10. 10 ALA 7 UGA 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Alabama wins 54% of them, Georgia 46%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Alabama by 17+14.2%
Alabama by 9–1617.9%
Alabama by 1–820.9%
Level after regulation1.9%
Georgia by 1–823.8%
Georgia by 9–1612.7%
Georgia by 17+8.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to Alabama: the final margin was Alabama by 3, without the luck Georgia by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Talty, 24 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Talty, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Alabama 4 for 16 yards, Georgia 6 for 103 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:53 False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UGA +0.5 pts
Q1 7:00 Ineligible Downfield on Georgia, 5 yards +3% ALA +1.2 pts
Q2 2:45 Holding on Alabama, 1 yard +11% UGA +4.3 pts
Q2 0:46 Holding on Georgia, 10 yards +1% UGA +0.1 pts
Q2 0:34 Personal Foul on Georgia, 50 yards +11% ALA +4.3 pts
Q3 7:30 Personal Foul on Alabama, 5 yards +3% UGA +1.0 pts
Q3 5:30 Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yards +5% ALA +1.7 pts
Q4 9:31 False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UGA +0.6 pts
Q4 7:35 Holding on Georgia, 8 yards +3% ALA +0.5 pts
Q4 2:16 Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yards +10% ALA +1.6 pts

When it happened

Georgia’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Georgia was ahead in it, below while Alabama was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:45 Holding on Alabama, 1 yardJudgment calls +11% UGA UGA: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:34 Personal Foul on Georgia, 50 yardsJudgment calls +11% ALA ALA: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:43 Alabama was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +14% UGA ALA: Punt
4 Q4 13:20 Georgia was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% ALA UGA: Punt
5 Q4 12:12 Alabama converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% ALA ALA: Punt
6 Q4 5:40 Georgia converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% UGA UGA: Punt
7 Q4 3:20 Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% ALA UGA: Punt
8 Q4 2:16 Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yardsJudgment calls +10% ALA ALA: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Alabama 16% · Georgia 84%

Final margin
Alabama by 3
Luck in points
8.2 for Alabama
Luck-adjusted margin
Georgia by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Alabama 54% · Georgia 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Alabama · Georgia

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