Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Notre Dame at Arkansas, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Notre Dame beat Arkansas 56–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 64% favorite.
Final
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 56 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Notre Dame about even · 0 Arkansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Notre Dame wins 10, Arkansas wins 0.
- 1 ND 58 ARK 0
- 2 ND 63 ARK 13
- 3 ND 56 ARK 10
- 4 ND 49 ARK 7
- 5 ND 56 ARK 17
- 6 ND 52 ARK 17
- 7 ND 59 ARK 28
- 8 ND 34 ARK 7
- 9 ND 38 ARK 17
- 10 ND 35 ARK 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Notre Dame wins 100% of them, Arkansas 0%. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 43.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame by 17+ | 95.6% |
| Notre Dame by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Notre Dame by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Arkansas by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Starzyk, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- S. Starzyk, 49 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Notre Dame 5 for 42 yards, Arkansas 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:48 | Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 12 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ARK +3.0 pts |
| Q1 1:48 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% ND +2.7 pts |
| Q2 9:41 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ND +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:55 | Intentional Grounding on Notre Dame, 0 yards | 0% ARK 0.0 pts |
| Q3 4:46 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards | 0% ND +2.6 pts |
| Q3 3:21 | Illegal Block on Notre Dame, 10 yards | 0% ARK +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:26 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards | 0% ND +1.5 pts |
| Q4 13:06 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ND +2.1 pts |
| Q4 12:22 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards | 0% ND +1.5 pts |
| Q4 4:29 | Unnecessary Roughness on Notre Dame, 15 yards | 0% ARK +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:10 | Delay of Game on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:16 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +3% ND | ARK: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:55 | S. Starzyk made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +2% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 12:48 | Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 9:49 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:35 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% ND | ARK: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:00 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +1% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 1:48 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:12 | Notre Dame converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +1% ND | ND: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Notre Dame 100% · Arkansas 0%
- Final margin
- Notre Dame by 43
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for Notre Dame
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Notre Dame by 38.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Notre Dame 100% · Arkansas 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Notre Dame · 
Arkansas
More from Week 5 2025
- Alabama at Georgia ALA 24–21 · replay 54% for the winner
- LSU at Ole Miss MISS 24–19 · replay 66% for the winner
- UConn at Buffalo CONN 20–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Tennessee at Mississippi State TENN 41–34 · replay 77% for the winner
- Auburn at Texas A&M TA&M 16–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Kentucky at South Carolina SC 35–13 · replay 95% for the winner
- Utah State at Vanderbilt VAN 55–35 · replay 100% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Missouri MIZ 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner