Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Kentucky at South Carolina, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
South Carolina beat Kentucky 35–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Carolina wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff South Carolina was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:28 left): Return touchdown by South Carolina, worth 29 points of win probability to South Carolina.
Final
 Kentucky Wildcats | 13 |
|---|---|
 South Carolina Gamecocks | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 South Carolina about even · −5 Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kentucky wins 0, South Carolina wins 10.
- 1 UK 14 SC 17
- 2 UK 14 SC 21
- 3 UK 7 SC 17
- 4 UK 7 SC 20
- 5 UK 14 SC 31
- 6 UK 16 SC 35
- 7 UK 3 SC 24
- 8 UK 3 SC 28
- 9 UK 0 SC 28
- 10 UK 7 SC 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kentucky wins 5% of them, South Carolina 95%. The line is what actually happened: South Carolina by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kentucky by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 3.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 13.6% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| South Carolina by 17+ | 61.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Kauwe, 27 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Kauwe, 42 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Kentucky 6 for 29 yards, South Carolina 5 for 61 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:27 | Personal Foul on South Carolina, 15 yards | 0% UK +2.3 pts |
| Q2 10:35 | Personal Foul on South Carolina, 11 yards | +2% UK +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:51 | Offside on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SC +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Holding on Kentucky, 7 yards | +1% SC +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on Kentucky, 0 yards | 0% SC 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:01 | Intentional Grounding on Kentucky, 8 yards | 0% SC +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:36 | Offside on Kentucky, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% SC +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:53 | Pass Interference on South Carolina, 15 yards | +2% UK +2.1 pts |
| Q3 8:32 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SC +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:12 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:35 | Unnecessary Roughness on South Carolina, 15 yards | 0% UK +1.7 pts |
When it happened
South Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:06 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% SC | SC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:33 | South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% UK | SC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:43 | South Carolina converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% SC | SC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:01 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +3% UK | UK: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 11:28 | Kentucky fumbled and South Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by South CarolinaSpecial teams | +29% SC | UK: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 8:56 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% SC | UK: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 8:44 | Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +4% SC | UK: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 5:18 | South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +2% UK | SC: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kentucky 0% · South Carolina 100%
- Final margin
- South Carolina by 22
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for South Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Carolina by 18.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Kentucky 5% · South Carolina 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Kentucky · 
South Carolina
More from Week 5 2025
- Alabama at Georgia ALA 24–21 · replay 54% for the winner
- LSU at Ole Miss MISS 24–19 · replay 66% for the winner
- Tennessee at Mississippi State TENN 41–34 · replay 77% for the winner
- Auburn at Texas A&M TA&M 16–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Utah State at Vanderbilt VAN 55–35 · replay 100% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Arkansas ND 56–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Missouri MIZ 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner