luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Louisville at Pittsburgh, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Louisville beat Pittsburgh 34–27, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Pittsburgh wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Louisville.

Louisville won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Pittsburgh it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff Louisville was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:41 left): Return touchdown by Pittsburgh, worth 16 points of win probability to Pittsburgh.

Final

Louisville Cardinals 34
Pittsburgh Panthers 27

September 27, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Louisville −3

Luck index +89 Louisville very lucky · −89 Pittsburgh

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Louisville wins 1, Pittsburgh wins 9.

  1. 1 LOU 24 PITT 17
  2. 2 LOU 10 PITT 13
  3. 3 LOU 21 PITT 27
  4. 4 LOU 28 PITT 38
  5. 5 LOU 6 PITT 19
  6. 6 LOU 10 PITT 26
  7. 7 LOU 10 PITT 30
  8. 8 LOU 0 PITT 24
  9. 9 LOU 13 PITT 41
  10. 10 LOU 17 PITT 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Louisville won on an off day

It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Pittsburgh it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

44 points apart for Louisville: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Louisville offenseEPA per play gained +0.05 +0.10 worse by 0.05
Louisville defenseEPA per play allowed +0.05 +0.02 worse by 0.03
Pittsburgh offenseEPA per play gained +0.05 +0.04 better by 0.00
Pittsburgh defenseEPA per play allowed +0.05 +0.06 better by 0.01

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Louisville wins 11% of them, Pittsburgh 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Louisville by 17+0.9%
Louisville by 9–162.7%
Louisville by 1–86.6%
Level after regulation1.0%
Pittsburgh by 1–813.7%
Pittsburgh by 9–1620.1%
Pittsburgh by 17+55.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.7 points to Louisville: the final margin was Louisville by 7, without the luck Pittsburgh by 3.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Butkowski, 30 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 35 yds made · 82% expected
  • T. Butkowski, 37 yds made · 78% expected
  • N. Keller, 57 yds made · 43% expected
  • N. Keller, 56 yds missed · 45% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Louisville 9 for 92 yards, Pittsburgh 6 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:38 Penalty on Louisville, 12 yards +6% PITT +2.9 pts
Q1 9:53 False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LOU +1.2 pts
Q1 6:10 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards +4% PITT +1.8 pts
Q1 1:54 Delay of Game on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PITT +0.6 pts
Q2 12:32 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards +7% LOU +4.1 pts
Q2 12:23 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards +1% LOU +0.6 pts
Q2 6:28 Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 3 yards 0% LOU +0.1 pts
Q2 3:22 Unnecessary Roughness on Louisville, 15 yards +2% PITT +0.7 pts
Q2 3:02 Penalty on Louisville, 15 yards +3% PITT +1.1 pts
Q2 1:46 False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +0.1 pts
Q2 0:19 False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% LOU +1.9 pts
Q3 13:26 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards +4% PITT +1.4 pts
Q3 1:48 False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PITT +0.6 pts
Q4 6:47 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% LOU +2.2 pts
Q4 0:25 Delay of Game on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +0.2 pts

When it happened

Pittsburgh’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Pittsburgh was ahead in it, below while Louisville was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:41 Return touchdown by PittsburghSpecial teams +16% PITT PITT: Punt
2 Q2 2:12 Pittsburgh converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% PITT PITT: Field goal
3 Q3 11:44 N. Keller made a 57-yard field goalKicks · 43% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +6% LOU LOU: Missed field goal
4 Q3 4:08 Louisville converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% LOU LOU: Punt
5 Q4 13:23 Pittsburgh was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% LOU PITT: Turnover
6 Q4 12:30 Louisville converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% LOU LOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 6:47 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% LOU LOU: Punt
8 Q4 5:01 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% PITT PITT: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Louisville 30% · Pittsburgh 70%

Final margin
Louisville by 7
Luck in points
10.7 for Louisville
Luck-adjusted margin
Pittsburgh by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Louisville 11% · Pittsburgh 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Louisville · Pittsburgh

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