Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Rutgers at Minnesota, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Minnesota beat Rutgers 31–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Minnesota wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Minnesota.
Before kickoff Minnesota was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:41 left): Minnesota converted 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to Minnesota.
Final
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 28 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +59 Minnesota lucky · −59 Rutgers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rutgers wins 6, Minnesota wins 4.
- 1 RUTG 41 MINN 10
- 2 RUTG 42 MINN 21
- 3 RUTG 31 MINN 17
- 4 RUTG 41 MINN 31
- 5 RUTG 27 MINN 21
- 6 RUTG 31 MINN 28
- 7 RUTG 35 MINN 37
- 8 RUTG 13 MINN 19
- 9 RUTG 28 MINN 41
- 10 RUTG 17 MINN 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rutgers wins 59% of them, Minnesota 41%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Minnesota by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rutgers by 17+ | 19.7% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 19.0% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 18.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Minnesota by 17+ | 9.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Patel, 22 yds missed · 94% expected
- B. Denaburg, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
- B. Denaburg, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- D. Pizzaro, 56 yds missed · 44% expected
Penalties: Rutgers 3 for 16 yards, Minnesota 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:12 | Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards | +1% RUTG +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:03 | Pass Interference on Rutgers, 1 yard | +2% MINN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:56 | Pass Interference on Minnesota, 10 yards | +3% RUTG +1.3 pts |
| Q3 1:43 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards | +4% MINN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:24 | False Start on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% MINN +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Minnesota’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 1:08 | Minnesota was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +6% RUTG | MINN: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 0:28 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 12:27 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +10% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 10:06 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +8% RUTG | MINN: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:38 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +6% MINN | RUTG: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 4:41 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +12% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:10 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% RUTG | RUTG: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:20 | D. Pizzaro missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 44% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +10% MINN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rutgers 6% · Minnesota 94%
- Final margin
- Minnesota by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for Rutgers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Minnesota by 8.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Rutgers 59% · Minnesota 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Rutgers · 
Minnesota
More from Week 5 2025
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Indiana at Iowa IU 20–15 · replay 48% for the winner
- UCLA at Northwestern NU 17–14 · replay 66% for the winner
- USC at Illinois ILL 34–32 · replay 76% for the winner
- Ohio State at Washington OSU 24–6 · replay 79% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner