Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress
Minnesota Golden Gophers: luck and expected wins
Minnesota is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 22nd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.
2026, game by game
How often Minnesota wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Eastern Illinois | W 59–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Mississippi State | L 13–38 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 3 | vs Akron | W 41–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Washington | W 27–24 | 40% | +60 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Minnesota win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Michigan |  Michigan by 2.7 | 43% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Purdue |  Minnesota by 5.5 | 63% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Iowa |  Iowa by 9.4 | 28% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Indiana |  Indiana by 24.0 | 7% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs UCLA |  UCLA by 5.4 | 37% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Penn State |  Penn State by 15.6 | 18% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Northwestern |  Northwestern by 4.0 | 41% |
| Week 13 · Nov 27 | at Wisconsin |  Wisconsin by 6.7 | 35% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Minnesota’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.09 | +8.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.02 | +7.4 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.04 | +0.2 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Minnesota takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 7 | vs Purdue | W 27–20 | 25% | +75 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Wisconsin | W 17–7 | 38% | +62 |
| 2026 Week 4 | @ Washington | W 27–24 | 40% | +60 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Rutgers | W 31–28 | 41% | +59 |
| 2025 Week 10 | vs Michigan State | W 23–20 | 41% | +59 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Minnesota would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Northwestern | L 35–38 | 34% | −34 |
| 2025 Week 3 | @ California | L 14–27 | 28% | −28 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Iowa | L 3–41 | 8% | −8 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Mississippi State | L 13–38 | 1% | −1 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Ohio State | L 3–42 | 0% | 0 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–5 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 3–1 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Buffalo | W 23–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | vs Northwestern State | W 66–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ California | L 14–27 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 5 | vs Rutgers | W 31–28 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 6 | @ Ohio State | L 3–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 7 | vs Purdue | W 27–20 | 25% | +75 |
| Week 8 | vs Nebraska | W 24–6 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 9 | @ Iowa | L 3–41 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 10 | vs Michigan State | W 23–20 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 12 | @ Oregon | L 13–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 13 | vs Northwestern | L 35–38 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 14 | vs Wisconsin | W 17–7 | 38% | +62 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big Ten teams by luck
- Big Ten:
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, 
Maryland, Michigan, 
Michigan State, 
Nebraska, Northwestern, 
Ohio State, 
Oregon, Penn State, 
Purdue, 
Rutgers, UCLA, 
USC, 
Washington, Wisconsin
How many wins does Minnesota have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.4 wins.
Was Minnesota lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.6 wins of luck, the 22nd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Minnesota’s luckiest season?
2025: 7–5 from play worth 5.0 wins, +2.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 2.4 (+0.6).