Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Northwestern State at Minnesota, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Minnesota beat Northwestern State 66–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Minnesota wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Northwestern State was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Northwestern State Demons | 0 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Minnesota about even · 0 Northwestern State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northwestern State wins 0, Minnesota wins 10.
- 1 NWST 0 MINN 35
- 2 NWST 0 MINN 41
- 3 NWST 0 MINN 45
- 4 NWST 0 MINN 48
- 5 NWST 0 MINN 49
- 6 NWST 0 MINN 52
- 7 NWST 0 MINN 55
- 8 NWST 0 MINN 58
- 9 NWST 0 MINN 62
- 10 NWST 0 MINN 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northwestern State wins 0% of them, Minnesota 100%. The line is what actually happened: Minnesota by 66.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northwestern State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Northwestern State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Northwestern State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| Minnesota by 17+ | 95.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Northwestern State 1 for 8 yards, Minnesota 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:34 | Illegal Block on Minnesota, 10 yards | 0% NWST +1.3 pts |
| Q2 11:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Northwestern State, 8 yards | 0% MINN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 8:28 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NWST +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:04 | Personal Foul on Minnesota, 15 yards | 0% NWST +0.1 pts |
| Q3 3:43 | Personal Foul on Minnesota, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% NWST +2.2 pts |
When it happened
Minnesota’s chance of winning
As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:54 | Return touchdown by MinnesotaSpecial teams | +1% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:21 | Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +2% MINN | NWST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:51 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:39 | Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 12% expected | +1% MINN | NWST: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 7:07 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +2% NWST | MINN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 6:36 | Minnesota converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 83% expected | +1% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 3:49 | Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +1% MINN | NWST: Punt |
| 8 | Q1 0:27 | Northwestern State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by MinnesotaSpecial teams | +2% MINN | NWST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northwestern State 0% · Minnesota 100%
- Final margin
- Minnesota by 66
- Luck in points
- 6.3 for Northwestern State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Minnesota by 72.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Northwestern State 0% · Minnesota 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Northwestern State · 
Minnesota
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- McNeese at Louisiana UL 34–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Southern Illinois at Purdue PUR 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Maryland MD 20–9 · replay 93% for the winner
- Florida International at Penn State PSU 34–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Indiana IU 56–9 · replay 99% for the winner