Week 2 2025 · September 5, 2025
Northern Illinois at Maryland, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Maryland beat Northern Illinois 20–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Maryland wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Maryland was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Northern Illinois Huskies | 9 |
|---|---|
 Maryland Terrapins | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Maryland about even · −7 Northern Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northern Illinois wins 1, Maryland wins 9.
- 1 NIU 17 MD 10
- 2 NIU 7 MD 10
- 3 NIU 7 MD 14
- 4 NIU 3 MD 14
- 5 NIU 10 MD 24
- 6 NIU 0 MD 17
- 7 NIU 3 MD 23
- 8 NIU 7 MD 31
- 9 NIU 10 MD 38
- 10 NIU 0 MD 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northern Illinois wins 7% of them, Maryland 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Maryland by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northern Illinois by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Northern Illinois by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Northern Illinois by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 16.7% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Maryland by 17+ | 56.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- A. Glass, 20 yds made · 94% expected
- S. O'Haire, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- S. O'Haire, 37 yds missed · 79% expected
- A. Glass, 58 yds missed · 42% expected
Penalties: Northern Illinois 6 for 69 yards, Maryland 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2:54 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:57 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:45 | Personal Foul on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +1% MD +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:52 | Personal Foul on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +3% MD +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:36 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +1% MD +1.1 pts |
| Q4 14:55 | Intentional Grounding on Northern Illinois, 14 yards | +4% MD +2.0 pts |
| Q4 12:15 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% NIU +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Maryland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:47 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% NIU | NIU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q3 3:52 | Personal Foul on Northern Illinois, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MD | MD: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 1:24 | Maryland fumbled and Northern Illinois recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% NIU | MD: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 14:55 | Intentional Grounding on Northern Illinois, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MD | MD: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 14:12 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% NIU | MD: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 13:01 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +3% MD | NIU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 12:15 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% NIU | NIU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 9:20 | Maryland converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +6% MD | MD: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northern Illinois 1% · Maryland 99%
- Final margin
- Maryland by 11
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for Northern Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maryland by 16.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Northern Illinois 7% · Maryland 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Northern Illinois · 
Maryland
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Southern Illinois at Purdue PUR 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner