luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Boston College at Michigan State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Michigan State beat Boston College 42–40, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Boston College wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Michigan State.

Michigan State won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Boston College it would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff Michigan State was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (2OT): Boston College’s two-point try failed, worth 22 points of win probability to Michigan State.

Final (OT)

Boston College Eagles 40
Michigan State Spartans 42

September 6, 2025 · Spartan Stadium · Closing line: Michigan State −3.5

Luck index +92 Michigan State very lucky · −92 Boston College

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Boston College wins 9, Michigan State wins 1.

  1. 1 BC 63 MSU 17
  2. 2 BC 63 MSU 27
  3. 3 BC 59 MSU 28
  4. 4 BC 66 MSU 38
  5. 5 BC 63 MSU 41
  6. 6 BC 56 MSU 38
  7. 7 BC 63 MSU 49
  8. 8 BC 42 MSU 34
  9. 9 BC 41 MSU 38
  10. 10 BC 38 MSU 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Michigan State won on an off day

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Boston College it would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

52 points apart for Michigan State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Boston College offenseEPA per play gained −0.35 +0.06 worse by 0.41
Boston College defenseEPA per play allowed −0.23 +0.10 better by 0.33
Michigan State offenseEPA per play gained −0.23 +0.09 worse by 0.32
Michigan State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.35 +0.07 better by 0.41

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Boston College wins 92% of them, Michigan State 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan State by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Boston College by 17+66.8%
Boston College by 9–1614.4%
Boston College by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation1.4%
Michigan State by 1–84.5%
Michigan State by 9–161.2%
Michigan State by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to Michigan State: the final margin was Michigan State by 2, without the luck Boston College by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Lombardo, 37 yds made · 78% expected
  • M. Connington, 50 yds made · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Boston College 7 for 104 yards, Michigan State 6 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:16 Face Mask on Boston College, 15 yards +3% MSU +1.6 pts
Q1 11:16 Face Mask on Boston College, 24 yards, wiping out the play +1% MSU +0.6 pts
Q2 10:57 Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards +6% BC +2.5 pts
Q2 10:57 False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSU +0.6 pts
Q2 7:45 Personal Foul on Boston College, 25 yards, wiping out the play +3% MSU +1.1 pts
Q2 5:35 Personal Foul on Michigan State, 15 yards +6% BC +2.4 pts
Q3 7:12 False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSU +0.4 pts
Q3 6:55 Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yards +4% MSU +1.3 pts
Q3 6:55 Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards +10% BC +3.1 pts
Q3 6:55 Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yards +4% MSU +1.2 pts
Q3 6:55 Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards +10% BC +3.8 pts
Q3 0:04 Illegal Substitution on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BC +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards +5% BC +1.2 pts

When it happened

Michigan State’s chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Michigan State was ahead in it, below while Boston College was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 Michigan State fumbled and Boston College recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BC MSU: End of half
2 Q1 11:16 Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedMichigan State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedMichigan State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedMichigan State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedMichigan State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Face Mask on Boston College, 15 yardsJudgment callsFace Mask on Boston College, 24 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% MSU MSU: End of half
3 Q2 12:50 Boston College converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedBoston College converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% BC BC: End of half
4 Q2 5:35 Boston College converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedPersonal Foul on Michigan State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% BC BC: Touchdown
5 Q3 6:55 Michigan State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedPass Interference on Boston College, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Michigan State, 10 yardsJudgment callsPass Interference on Boston College, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Michigan State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% MSU MSU: Field goal
6 Q3 2:17 Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedBoston College was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedM. Connington made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +6% BC BC: Punt
7 Q4 15:00 Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedHolding on Michigan State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% BC MSU: Punt
8 2OT Boston College’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +22% MSU –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Boston College 61% · Michigan State 39%

Final margin
Michigan State by 2
Luck in points
3.7 for Michigan State
Luck-adjusted margin
Boston College by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Boston College 92% · Michigan State 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Boston College · Michigan State

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