ACC · 2026 season, in progress

Boston College Eagles: luck and expected wins

Boston College is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 34th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–1.

2026, game by game

How often Boston College wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Cincinnati	L 15–34	11%	−11
Week 2	vs Rutgers	W 28–21	45%	+55
Week 3	vs Maine	W 22–16	90%	+10
Week 4	vs Virginia Tech	L 14–21	19%	−19

Wk 1 −11 @ CIN

Wk 2 +55 vs RUTG

Wk 3 +10 vs ME

Wk 4 −19 vs VT

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Boston College win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at SMU	SMU by 20.9	9%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh by 18.2	13%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech by 12.4	22%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Duke	Duke by 23.2	8%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Florida State	Florida State by 9.7	28%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Notre Dame	Notre Dame by 40.3	1%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Syracuse	Syracuse by 3.7	41%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Miami	Miami by 34.9	2%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Boston College’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.05	−2.4
Pre-snap flags	−0.05	−3.8
Kicks	−0.11	−5.3

Luckiest wins

Wins Boston College takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	vs Rutgers	W 28–21	45%	+55
2026 Week 3	vs Maine	W 22–16	90%	+10
2025 Week 14	@ Syracuse	W 34–12	100%	0
2025 Week 1	vs Fordham	W 66–10	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Boston College would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	@ Michigan State	L 40–42	92%	−92
2025 Week 5	vs California	L 24–28	72%	−72
2025 Week 12	vs Georgia Tech	L 34–36	30%	−30
2025 Week 3	@ Stanford	L 20–30	29%	−29
2025 Week 8	vs UConn	L 23–38	28%	−28

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	2–10	4.7	−2.7	0–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Fordham	W 66–10	100%	0
Week 2	@ Michigan State	L 40–42	92%	−92
Week 3	@ Stanford	L 20–30	29%	−29
Week 5	vs California	L 24–28	72%	−72
Week 6	@ Pittsburgh	L 7–48	1%	−1
Week 7	vs Clemson	L 10–41	1%	−1
Week 8	vs UConn	L 23–38	28%	−28
Week 9	@ Louisville	L 24–38	12%	−12
Week 10	vs Notre Dame	L 10–25	4%	−4
Week 11	vs SMU	L 13–45	4%	−4
Week 12	vs Georgia Tech	L 34–36	30%	−30
Week 14	@ Syracuse	W 34–12	100%	0