Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
SMU at Boston College, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
SMU beat Boston College 45–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, SMU wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff SMU was a 75% favorite.
Final
 SMU Mustangs | 45 |
|---|---|
 Boston College Eagles | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 SMU about even · −4 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. SMU wins 10, Boston College wins 0.
- 1 SMU 55 BC 7
- 2 SMU 46 BC 7
- 3 SMU 42 BC 7
- 4 SMU 40 BC 9
- 5 SMU 42 BC 14
- 6 SMU 28 BC 3
- 7 SMU 34 BC 13
- 8 SMU 31 BC 14
- 9 SMU 31 BC 19
- 10 SMU 20 BC 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
SMU wins 96% of them, Boston College 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| SMU by 17+ | 74.6% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 2.3% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Boston College by 17+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Keltner, 20 yds made · 94% expected
- L. Lombardo, 31 yds made · 89% expected
- L. Lombardo, 36 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: SMU 12 for 140 yards, Boston College 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:41 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% BC +1.7 pts |
| Q1 7:19 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% BC +2.8 pts |
| Q1 4:12 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +1% BC +1.2 pts |
| Q1 4:11 | Face Mask on SMU, 15 yards | +2% BC +2.0 pts |
| Q1 2:22 | Offside on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +1.1 pts |
| Q1 2:21 | Offside on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SMU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:53 | Ineligible Downfield on Boston College, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% SMU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 2:31 | Personal Foul on SMU, 15 yards | +1% BC +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:27 | Offside on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SMU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Holding on Boston College, 25 yards | 0% SMU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:32 | Penalty on SMU, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% BC +1.5 pts |
| Q3 12:35 | Illegal Block on SMU, 10 yards | +1% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:36 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +1% BC +1.3 pts |
| Q3 5:33 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BC +1.2 pts |
| Q3 5:08 | Personal Foul on SMU, 15 yards | 0% BC +1.2 pts |
| Q4 12:58 | Roughing the Passer on SMU, 15 yards | 0% BC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:08 | Delay of Game on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Boston College’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:41 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% BC | BC: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 7:19 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% BC | BC: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 4:17 | Boston College fumbled and SMU recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% SMU | BC: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 8:37 | Boston College was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% SMU | BC: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 5:53 | Ineligible Downfield on Boston College, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 4:27 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +2% SMU | BC: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 4:21 | Boston College was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +3% SMU | BC: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 10:45 | SMU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +3% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
SMU 100% · Boston College 0%
- Final margin
- SMU by 32
- Luck in points
- 13.1 for SMU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 18.9
- Replay with same day's form
- SMU 96% · Boston College 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
SMU · 
Boston College
More from Week 11 2025
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner
- Duke at UConn CONN 37–34 · replay 47% for the winner
- Florida State at Clemson CLEM 24–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- California at Louisville CAL 29–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- Syracuse at Miami MIA 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner