Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Air Force at San José State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Air Force beat San José State 26–16, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, San José State wins 9 of 10.
Air Force won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against San José State it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff San José State was a 65% favorite.
Final
 Air Force Falcons | 26 |
|---|---|
 San José State Spartans | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +95 Air Force very lucky · −95 San José State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Air Force wins 1, San José State wins 9.
- 1 AF 20 SJSU 14
- 2 AF 24 SJSU 28
- 3 AF 20 SJSU 28
- 4 AF 21 SJSU 34
- 5 AF 6 SJSU 21
- 6 AF 17 SJSU 35
- 7 AF 3 SJSU 24
- 8 AF 10 SJSU 35
- 9 AF 14 SJSU 45
- 10 AF 7 SJSU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Air Force won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against San José State it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for Air Force: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.13 | worse by 0.04 |
| Air Force defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.34 | +0.21 | worse by 0.13 |
| San José State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.34 | +0.18 | better by 0.16 |
| San José State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.13 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Air Force wins 5% of them, San José State 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Air Force by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Air Force by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Air Force by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Air Force by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 16.0% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| San José State by 17+ | 59.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Lynch, 31 yds made · 83% expected
- M. Brown, 29 yds made · 86% expected
- D. Lynch, 34 yds made · 79% expected
- R. Tubbs, 33 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Air Force 5 for 45 yards, San José State 6 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:29 | Illegal Formation on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SJSU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:54 | Face Mask on San José State, 15 yards | +3% AF +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:45 | Pass Interference on Air Force, 15 yards | +1% AF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:31 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% AF +2.1 pts |
| Q2 2:53 | Holding on Air Force, 10 yards | +1% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards | +4% AF +1.8 pts |
| Q3 5:08 | Holding on Air Force, 10 yards | +1% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:45 | False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SJSU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 14:12 | Personal Foul on San José State, 15 yards | +7% AF +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:51 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards | 0% AF +2.1 pts |
| Q4 0:25 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% AF +1.4 pts |
When it happened
San José State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:24 | Air Force was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% SJSU | AF: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 15:00 | Holding on San José State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% AF | AF: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 13:57 | San José State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% SJSU | SJSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 10:34 | M. Brown made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +4% AF | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 5:08 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedHolding on Air Force, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% SJSU | AF: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:45 | San José State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +6% AF | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:12 | Personal Foul on San José State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:08 | Air Force converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +5% AF | AF: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Air Force 99% · San José State 1%
- Final margin
- Air Force by 10
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for San José State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Air Force by 13.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Air Force 5% · San José State 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Air Force · 
San José State
More from Week 11 2025
- San Diego State at Hawai'i HAW 38–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Nevada at Utah State USU 51–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- UNLV at Colorado State UNLV 42–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner
- UAB at Rice RICE 24–17 · replay 35% for the winner