Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Iowa State at TCU, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa State beat TCU 20–17, but the replays lean toward TCU: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Iowa State.
Before kickoff TCU was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:32 left): Return touchdown by Iowa State, worth 47 points of win probability to Iowa State.
Final
 Iowa State Cyclones | 20 |
|---|---|
 TCU Horned Frogs | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +78 Iowa State very lucky · −78 TCU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iowa State wins 2, TCU wins 8.
- 1 ISU 28 TCU 17
- 2 ISU 17 TCU 14
- 3 ISU 24 TCU 27
- 4 ISU 10 TCU 14
- 5 ISU 17 TCU 24
- 6 ISU 7 TCU 17
- 7 ISU 7 TCU 20
- 8 ISU 14 TCU 30
- 9 ISU 3 TCU 24
- 10 ISU 3 TCU 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Iowa State wins 22% of them, TCU 78%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iowa State by 17+ | 2.1% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 5.7% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 11.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| TCU by 1–8 | 24.3% |
| TCU by 9–16 | 22.3% |
| TCU by 17+ | 29.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. McCashland, 35 yds made · 79% expected
- N. McCashland, 25 yds missed · 90% expected
Penalties: Iowa State 7 for 69 yards, TCU 5 for 44 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:47 | Illegal Formation on Iowa State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% TCU +1.9 pts |
| Q1 9:08 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | +1% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:04 | Intentional Grounding on Iowa State, 0 yards | 0% TCU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:47 | False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ISU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:17 | Face Mask on Iowa State, 11 yards | +4% TCU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 8:56 | Unnecessary Roughness on TCU, 15 yards | +3% ISU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:49 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | +2% TCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:18 | Pass Interference on Iowa State, 13 yards | +3% TCU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 2:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on Iowa State, 15 yards | +4% TCU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 14:50 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | +2% ISU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 13:46 | Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yards | +6% TCU +3.1 pts |
| Q4 11:31 | Pass Interference on TCU, 4 yards | +1% ISU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
TCU’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:11 | TCU was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +7% ISU | TCU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 0:17 | N. McCashland missed a 25-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +9% ISU | TCU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 10:10 | TCU converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +11% TCU | TCU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 8:08 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +9% ISU | ISU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 13:46 | Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% TCU | TCU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 6:32 | Iowa State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedReturn touchdown by Iowa StateSpecial teams | +47% ISU | ISU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:19 | TCU fumbled and Iowa State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% ISU | TCU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 3:30 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +12% ISU | ISU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iowa State 58% · TCU 42%
- Final margin
- Iowa State by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for Iowa State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa State by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Iowa State 22% · TCU 78% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Iowa State · 
TCU
More from Week 11 2025
- Kansas at Arizona ARIZ 24–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- Colorado at West Virginia WVU 29–22 · replay 90% for the winner
- Houston at UCF HOU 30–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- BYU at Texas Tech TTU 29–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner