luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Colorado at West Virginia, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

West Virginia beat Colorado 29–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, West Virginia wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff West Virginia was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:58 left): West Virginia converted 4th & 4, worth 9 points of win probability to West Virginia.

Final

Colorado Buffaloes 22
West Virginia Mountaineers 29

November 8, 2025 · Milan Puskar Stadium · Closing line: West Virginia −6.5

Luck index +10 West Virginia about even · −10 Colorado

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colorado wins 1, West Virginia wins 9.

  1. 1 COLO 20 WVU 14
  2. 2 COLO 9 WVU 12
  3. 3 COLO 10 WVU 16
  4. 4 COLO 6 WVU 16
  5. 5 COLO 3 WVU 16
  6. 6 COLO 7 WVU 23
  7. 7 COLO 0 WVU 19
  8. 8 COLO 17 WVU 41
  9. 9 COLO 10 WVU 40
  10. 10 COLO 13 WVU 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colorado wins 10% of them, West Virginia 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: West Virginia by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colorado by 17+0.7%
Colorado by 9–161.9%
Colorado by 1–86.2%
Level after regulation1.0%
West Virginia by 1–814.4%
West Virginia by 9–1619.6%
West Virginia by 17+56.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.7 points to West Virginia: the final margin was West Virginia by 7, without the luck Colorado by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Mata, 23 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Hensley, 41 yds made · 71% expected
  • K. Hensley, 37 yds made · 78% expected
  • A. Mata, 35 yds made · 82% expected
  • A. Mata, 38 yds made · 77% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colorado 6 for 60 yards, West Virginia 3 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:29 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards +1% COLO +0.6 pts
Q2 14:12 False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WVU +0.6 pts
Q2 14:00 Illegal Use of Hands on Colorado, 15 yards +3% WVU +1.7 pts
Q2 7:35 Face Mask on West Virginia, 11 yards +3% COLO +1.4 pts
Q2 0:14 Face Mask on Colorado, 15 yards +1% WVU +0.7 pts
Q3 3:00 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards +4% WVU +1.5 pts
Q3 1:08 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards +5% WVU +1.5 pts
Q3 1:05 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on West Virginia, 15 yards +4% COLO +1.2 pts
Q4 10:36 False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WVU +0.5 pts

When it happened

West Virginia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while West Virginia was ahead in it, below while Colorado was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:09 Colorado was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +7% WVU COLO: Punt
2 Q1 6:04 West Virginia converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% WVU WVU: Turnover
3 Q2 14:54 Colorado converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +5% COLO COLO: Punt
4 Q3 3:58 West Virginia converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% WVU WVU: Field goal
5 Q3 1:08 Holding on Colorado, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% WVU WVU: Punt
6 Q4 14:56 Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% WVU COLO: Field goal
7 Q4 8:00 West Virginia converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% WVU WVU: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:48 West Virginia converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% WVU WVU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colorado 74% · West Virginia 26%

Final margin
West Virginia by 7
Luck in points
11.7 for West Virginia
Luck-adjusted margin
Colorado by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Colorado 10% · West Virginia 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Colorado · West Virginia

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