Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress

West Virginia Mountaineers: luck and expected wins

West Virginia is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 24th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often West Virginia wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Coastal Carolina	W 31–24	42%	+58
Week 2	vs UT Martin	W 52–7	99%	+1
Week 3	vs Virginia	W 38–27	93%	+7
Week 4	vs Oklahoma State	L 24–41	9%	−9

Wk 1 +58 vs CCU

Wk 2 +1 vs UTM

Wk 3 +7 vs UVA

Wk 4 −9 vs OKST

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	West Virginia win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Iowa State	Iowa State by 13.9	19%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Arizona	Arizona by 5.3	37%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Cincinnati	Cincinnati by 3.1	42%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at TCU	TCU by 9.9	27%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Texas Tech	Texas Tech by 17.9	14%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Kansas	West Virginia by 2.3	55%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Houston	Houston by 5.8	37%
Week 13 · Nov 27	at Utah	Utah by 26.6	6%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in West Virginia’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.21	+15.3
Kicks	+0.14	+4.8
Fumble bounces	−0.09	−4.5

Luckiest wins

Wins West Virginia takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 1	vs Coastal Carolina	W 31–24	42%	+58
2025 Week 10	@ Houston	W 45–35	42%	+58
2025 Week 11	vs Colorado	W 29–22	90%	+10
2025 Week 3	vs Pittsburgh	W 31–24	92%	+8
2026 Week 3	vs Virginia	W 38–27	93%	+7

Unluckiest losses

Losses West Virginia would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	vs TCU	L 17–23	60%	−60
2025 Week 12	@ Arizona State	L 23–25	44%	−44
2026 Week 4	vs Oklahoma State	L 24–41	9%	−9
2025 Week 6	@ BYU	L 24–38	7%	−7
2025 Week 2	@ Ohio	L 10–17	6%	−6

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	4.5	−0.5	2–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Robert Morris	W 45–3	100%	0
Week 2	@ Ohio	L 10–17	6%	−6
Week 3	vs Pittsburgh	W 31–24	92%	+8
Week 4	@ Kansas	L 10–41	1%	−1
Week 5	vs Utah	L 14–48	3%	−3
Week 6	@ BYU	L 24–38	7%	−7
Week 8	@ UCF	L 13–45	0%	0
Week 9	vs TCU	L 17–23	60%	−60
Week 10	@ Houston	W 45–35	42%	+58
Week 11	vs Colorado	W 29–22	90%	+10
Week 12	@ Arizona State	L 23–25	44%	−44
Week 14	vs Texas Tech	L 0–49	4%	−4