Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 57 of the 65 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma State beat West Virginia 41–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma State wins 9 of 10.
An off day for West Virginia: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Oklahoma State it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers
Before kickoff West Virginia was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:39 left): West Virginia was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to Oklahoma State.
Final
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 41 |
|---|---|
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Oklahoma State about even · −9 West Virginia
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma State wins 9, West Virginia wins 1.
- 1 OKST 52 WVU 9
- 2 OKST 56 WVU 21
- 3 OKST 45 WVU 17
- 4 OKST 38 WVU 14
- 5 OKST 41 WVU 22
- 6 OKST 40 WVU 24
- 7 OKST 30 WVU 17
- 8 OKST 27 WVU 17
- 9 OKST 23 WVU 20
- 10 OKST 37 WVU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for West Virginia
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Oklahoma State it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for West Virginia: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.58 | +0.02 | better by 0.56 |
| Oklahoma State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.25 | +0.10 | worse by 0.15 |
| West Virginia offenseEPA per play gained | +0.25 | +0.02 | better by 0.23 |
| West Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.58 | +0.07 | worse by 0.51 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma State wins 91% of them, West Virginia 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma State by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma State by 17+ | 60.0% |
| Oklahoma State by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Oklahoma State by 1–8 | 11.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| West Virginia by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Keltner, 30 yds made · 88% expected
- S. Keltner, 19 yds made · 96% expected
- J. Cassidy, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- S. Keltner, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- S. Keltner, 47 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma State 9 for 88 yards, West Virginia 4 for 17 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:10 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 8 yards | +1% WVU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 9:31 | Illegal Snap on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 7:40 | False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Illegal Block on Oklahoma State, 10 yards | +2% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:17 | Personal Foul on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | +5% WVU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:33 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 2 yards, wiping out the play | +3% OKST +7.9 pts |
| Q3 8:11 | Face Mask on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | +5% WVU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:57 | Delay of Game on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OKST +0.2 pts |
| Q4 14:26 | False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:09 | Illegal Use of Hands on Oklahoma State, 10 yards | +4% WVU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:12 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | +1% WVU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 1:59 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.1 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.9 pts |
When it happened
West Virginia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 2:18 | Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% OKST | OKST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 13:17 | Personal Foul on Oklahoma State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 12:07 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 8:47 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% WVU | WVU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 8:11 | Face Mask on Oklahoma State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% WVU | WVU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 1:10 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +6% OKST | WVU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 0:39 | West Virginia was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +13% OKST | WVU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:13 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% WVU | WVU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma State 99% · West Virginia 1%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma State by 17
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for Oklahoma State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma State by 15.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma State 91% · West Virginia 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 57 of the 65 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Oklahoma State · 
West Virginia
More from Week 4 2026
- Arizona at Washington State ARIZ 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- TCU at UCF UCF 21–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Colorado at Baylor BAY 23–13 · replay 81% for the winner
- Kansas State at Cincinnati CIN 31–26 · replay 83% for the winner
- Utah at Iowa State UTAH 31–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Houston at Georgia Southern HOU 42–28 · replay 98% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Texas Tech TTU 49–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner
- Minnesota at Washington MINN 27–24 · replay 40% for the winner