Week 4 2026 · September 25, 2026
Navy at UAB, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
UAB beat Navy 24–20, but the replays lean toward Navy: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to UAB.
Before kickoff Navy was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:24 left): Navy fumbled and recovered it, worth 15 points of win probability to Navy.
Final
 Navy Midshipmen | 20 |
|---|---|
 UAB Blazers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 UAB very lucky · −68 Navy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Navy wins 7, UAB wins 3.
- 1 NAVY 34 UAB 3
- 2 NAVY 31 UAB 7
- 3 NAVY 35 UAB 17
- 4 NAVY 21 UAB 7
- 5 NAVY 20 UAB 10
- 6 NAVY 34 UAB 27
- 7 NAVY 17 UAB 14
- 8 NAVY 21 UAB 24
- 9 NAVY 14 UAB 23
- 10 NAVY 0 UAB 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Navy wins 68% of them, UAB 32%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UAB by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Navy by 17+ | 27.9% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Level after regulation | 5.4% |
| UAB by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| UAB by 9–16 | 8.3% |
| UAB by 17+ | 5.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Delange, 44 yds made · 67% expected
- N. Bartley, 34 yds made · 81% expected
- N. Bartley, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- J. Delange, 47 yds missed · 62% expected
Penalties: Navy 2 for 10 yards, UAB 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:50 | Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NAVY +1.0 pts |
| Q1 7:02 | Unnecessary Roughness on UAB, 15 yards | +2% NAVY +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:40 | Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UAB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:57 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards | +2% NAVY +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:54 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards | +6% NAVY +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:27 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UAB +0.3 pts |
When it happened
UAB’s chance of winning
As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 6:23 | Navy converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +10% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 3:36 | UAB converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% UAB | UAB: Turnover |
| 3 | Q4 13:54 | Holding on UAB, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% NAVY | NAVY: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 10:46 | Navy fumbled and UAB recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% UAB | NAVY: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 7:02 | Navy fumbled and UAB recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% UAB | NAVY: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 1:01 | Navy was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% UAB | NAVY: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:42 | J. Delange missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 8 of 9 from 45+ before | +10% NAVY | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:24 | Navy was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedNavy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% NAVY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Navy 26% · UAB 74%
- Final margin
- UAB by 4
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for Navy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UAB by 4.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Navy 68% · UAB 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Navy · 
UAB
More from Week 4 2026
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colorado State at UTSA UTSA 59–45 · replay 96% for the winner
- North Carolina Central at East Carolina ECU 42–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- Tulsa at Arkansas ARK 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Houston Christian at North Texas UNT 63–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner