Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Southern Miss at Tulane, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat Southern Miss 24–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Tulane wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 36 points of win probability to Tulane.
Before kickoff Tulane was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:45 left): C. Wilbanks had a 21-yard field goal blocked, worth 24 points of win probability to Tulane.
Final
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 21 |
|---|---|
 Tulane Green Wave | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Tulane lucky · −45 Southern Miss
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southern Miss wins 5, Tulane wins 5.
- 1 USM 37 TULN 11
- 2 USM 49 TULN 34
- 3 USM 31 TULN 20
- 4 USM 21 TULN 14
- 5 USM 10 TULN 7
- 6 USM 26 TULN 29
- 7 USM 38 TULN 45
- 8 USM 14 TULN 27
- 9 USM 10 TULN 27
- 10 USM 13 TULN 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Southern Miss wins 45% of them, Tulane 55%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 12.2% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 13.5% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 16.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Tulane by 17+ | 20.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Helmke, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- C. Wilbanks, 44 yds missed · 63% expected
- C. Wilbanks, 21 yds blocked · 91% expected
Penalties: Southern Miss 7 for 80 yards, Tulane 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:30 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +1% USM +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:57 | Illegal Block on Tulane, 10 yards | 0% USM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:14 | Face Mask on Tulane, 15 yards | +2% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:30 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% TULN +2.3 pts |
| Q2 5:12 | Delay of Game on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | Illegal Block on Tulane, 10 yards | +1% USM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:13 | Kick Catch Interference on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +2% TULN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:01 | Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +3% TULN +1.7 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | Chop Block on Southern Miss, 14 yards | +4% TULN +1.3 pts |
| Q3 5:07 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +2% USM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:42 | Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +7% TULN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:22 | Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 11 yards | +6% TULN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:13 | Illegal Substitution on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% USM +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Tulane’s chance of winning
As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 14:52 | Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedTulane fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% TULN | TULN: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 7:01 | Tulane was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +8% USM | TULN: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 2:42 | Tulane converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% TULN | TULN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 11:42 | Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% TULN | TULN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 5:50 | Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% TULN | USM: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 5:44 | C. Wilbanks missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him | +13% TULN | USM: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:49 | Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +14% TULN | USM: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:45 | C. Wilbanks had a 21-yard field goal blockedKicks · 91% expected for him | +24% TULN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southern Miss 86% · Tulane 14%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 3
- Luck in points
- 9.1 for Tulane
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southern Miss by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Southern Miss 45% · Tulane 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Southern Miss · 
Tulane
More from Week 4 2026
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Marshall MRSH 36–35 · replay 81% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- James Madison at Old Dominion JMU 46–20 · replay 93% for the winner