American · 2026 season, in progress

Tulane Green Wave: luck and expected wins

Tulane is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 18th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.

2026, game by game

How often Tulane wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Duke	L 3–17	3%	−3
Week 2	vs South Alabama	W 28–24	56%	+44
Week 3	@ Kansas State	L 20–31	12%	−12
Week 4	vs Southern Miss	W 24–21	55%	+45

Wk 1 −3 @ DUKE

Wk 2 +44 vs USA

Wk 3 −12 @ KSU

Wk 4 +45 vs USM

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Tulane win chance
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Army	Army by 7.4	32%
Week 7 · Oct 16	vs Memphis	Tulane by 0.6	51%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs UTSA	UTSA by 1.3	47%
Week 9 · Oct 30	at Charlotte	Tulane by 17.7	86%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Tulsa	Tulane by 8.5	70%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Rice	Tulane by 9.3	71%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs North Texas	North Texas by 5.2	38%
Week 13 · Nov 27	at South Florida	South Florida by 9.7	28%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Tulane’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.42	+10.9
Pre-snap flags	−0.08	−5.3

Luckiest wins

Wins Tulane takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	@ South Alabama	W 33–31	15%	+85
2025 Week 15	vs North Texas	W 34–21	18%	+82
2026 Week 4	vs Southern Miss	W 24–21	55%	+45
2026 Week 2	vs South Alabama	W 28–24	56%	+44
2025 Week 1	vs Northwestern	W 23–3	63%	+37

Unluckiest losses

Losses Tulane would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 10	@ UTSA	L 26–48	19%	−19
2026 Week 3	@ Kansas State	L 20–31	12%	−12
2026 Week 1	@ Duke	L 3–17	3%	−3
2025 CFP first round	@ Ole Miss	L 10–41	2%	−2
2025 Week 4	@ Ole Miss	L 10–45	2%	−2

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	11–2	7.8	+3.2	5–0	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Northwestern	W 23–3	63%	+37
Week 2	@ South Alabama	W 33–31	15%	+85
Week 3	vs Duke	W 34–27	75%	+25
Week 4	@ Ole Miss	L 10–45	2%	−2
Week 5	@ Tulsa	W 31–14	76%	+24
Week 7	vs East Carolina	W 26–19	76%	+24
Week 8	vs Army	W 24–17	92%	+8
Week 10	@ UTSA	L 26–48	19%	−19
Week 11	@ Memphis	W 38–32	74%	+26
Week 12	vs Florida Atlantic	W 35–24	76%	+24
Week 13	@ Temple	W 37–13	93%	+7
Week 14	vs Charlotte	W 27–0	100%	0
Week 15	vs North Texas	W 34–21	18%	+82
CFP first round	@ Ole Miss	L 10–41	2%	−2