Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Tulane at Temple, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat Temple 37–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tulane wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Tulane was a 69% favorite.
Final
 Tulane Green Wave | 37 |
|---|---|
 Temple Owls | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Tulane about even · −7 Temple
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulane wins 9, Temple wins 1.
- 1 TULN 41 TEM 0
- 2 TULN 40 TEM 7
- 3 TULN 31 TEM 3
- 4 TULN 35 TEM 10
- 5 TULN 27 TEM 6
- 6 TULN 27 TEM 10
- 7 TULN 21 TEM 7
- 8 TULN 27 TEM 17
- 9 TULN 31 TEM 26
- 10 TULN 13 TEM 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulane wins 93% of them, Temple 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulane by 17+ | 61.2% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 11.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 5.0% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Temple by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Durkin, 50 yds made · 55% expected
- P. Durkin, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- P. Durkin, 38 yds made · 77% expected
- P. Durkin, 42 yds made · 70% expected
- P. Durkin, 52 yds made · 52% expected
Penalties: Tulane 8 for 83 yards, Temple 8 for 73 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:45 | Illegal Motion on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% TULN +2.7 pts |
| Q1 0:13 | Illegal Formation on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEM +1.0 pts |
| Q2 12:08 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEM +1.3 pts |
| Q2 8:49 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards | 0% TEM +0.1 pts |
| Q2 6:45 | Pass Interference on Temple, 13 yards | +3% TULN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 3:44 | False Start on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:06 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards | +2% TEM +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:22 | Kick Catch Interference on Temple, 15 yards | +1% TULN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:06 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:27 | Illegal Touching on Temple, 5 yards | +1% TULN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 4:52 | Illegal Block on Tulane, 10 yards | 0% TEM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:23 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards | 0% TEM +1.2 pts |
| Q4 14:51 | Delay of Game on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:02 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 13 yards | +1% TEM +1.7 pts |
| Q4 5:25 | Face Mask on Temple, 15 yards | 0% TULN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:36 | Roughing the Passer on Tulane, 15 yards | 0% TEM +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Temple’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:45 | Illegal Motion on Temple, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:29 | Tulane converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% TULN | TULN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 4:30 | P. Durkin made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +3% TULN | TULN: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:08 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% TEM | TEM: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:12 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% TULN | TEM: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 6:45 | Pass Interference on Temple, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 3:06 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% TEM | TEM: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 0:25 | Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% TULN | TULN: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulane 98% · Temple 2%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 24
- Luck in points
- 8.4 for Tulane
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulane by 15.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulane 93% · Temple 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Tulane · 
Temple
More from Week 13 2025
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Tulsa at Army TLSA 26–25 · replay 55% for the winner
- South Florida at UAB USF 48–18 · replay 95% for the winner
- East Carolina at UTSA UTSA 58–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- North Texas at Rice UNT 56–24 · replay 100% for the winner
- Charlotte at Georgia UGA 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner